Could Trump Cut A Deal With Putin And Leave Ukraine In The Cold?
by Reid Standish and , RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service · Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty · JoinU.S. President Donald Trump wields significant influence over the next phase of the war in Ukraine, but how he plans to use it remains an open question.
Trump vowed during his inaugural address on January 20 to be a "peacemaker" and promised on the campaign trail to quickly end the war in Ukraine, the recipient of billions in U.S. military aid.
But his more transactional approach to diplomacy has also led to fears he could cut a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine's head.
"There is still concern that Trump will reach a deal with Putin and then tell Ukraine they must take it or he will suspend U.S. assistance to Ukraine," said Marie Dumoulin, a former French diplomat at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
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The new U.S. president's strategy for ending the war is still taking shape, but analysts said he has two broad paths forward.
The first is to push Ukraine -- already grappling with manpower shortages and donor fatigue -- to the negotiating table by withholding pivotal military support and forcing it into a peace deal on unfavorable terms, a possibility Kyiv and most Western capitals consider a worst-case scenario.
The other is to ramp up pressure on Russia with new sanctions and increased military assistance for Ukraine.
"At this point, every option is still a possibility," Dumoulin said.
Will Trump Strike A Deal With Putin?
Both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy have signaled they are open to negotiations, but it's unclear if Kyiv and Moscow are willing to make compromises.
Putin initially wanted to capture Kyiv and install a government sympathetic to Moscow. The Kremlin also holds firm on its demands to keep swathes of occupied Ukrainian territory and limit the size of Ukraine's military.
That's been a nonstarter for Kyiv, which calls for the restoration of its territory and the complete withdrawal of Russian forces. Zelenskiy, however, has said he could be open to freezing the war along the current front line in exchange for a pathway to NATO membership.
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Trump is also looking to leverage his relationship with Putin, who he praised in the past as a "savvy" strategist, and said he plans to meet face-to-face with the Russian leader.
He's also called for Chinese leader Xi Jinping to play a larger role in bringing the war to an end, telling reporters on January 21 that he's pressed Xi and that he has "a lot of…power, like we have a lot of power" to end the war but that "he's not done very much on that."
Leveraging leader-to-leader connections seems to be part of the new administration's strategy. Beijing has remained officially neutral on the fighting but has sustained Russia's economy and boosted Moscow's war effort with a steady supply of dual-use goods. In calling out Xi, Trump appears to think his personal touch can make a difference.
"From President Trump's perspective, you can't enter a deal if you don't have some type of relationship and dialogue with the other side. And we will absolutely establish that in the coming months," Mike Waltz, Trump's national-security adviser, said during a January 12 interview.
Trump once again brought up his personal rapport with the Russian leader when speaking to reporters at the White House on January 20, saying he gets "along with [Putin] great. I would hope he wants to make a deal."
But he also voiced criticism, a signal Trump could wield both a carrot and a stick in a bid to cut a deal with Moscow.
"I think [Putin is] destroying Russia by not making a deal," Trump said. "I think Russia's going to be in big trouble."
Oleksandr Motsyk, Ukraine's former ambassador to the United States, told RFE/RL that Kyiv should be prepared for a flurry of diplomacy and not be startled by outreach between Moscow and Washington.
"The first stage of it will be that Ukraine talks to the United States and Russia talks to the United States," he said. "Then the United States looks at the positions of both parties, and based on that, can then make some proposals."
What Tools Does Trump Have?
But as momentum for talks picks up steam, Trump may also struggle to bring Russia to the negotiating table.
Analysts say that despite the heavy losses suffered by Russia on the battlefield, Putin believes he is winning in Ukraine and has little incentive to budge.
This may see Trump look to exercise leverage -- and that could include imposing harsher sanctions on Russia's economy.
Prior to leaving office, the Biden administration imposed the most disruptive sanctions on Russia's oil trade by any Western power to date. Trump could aim to add to those measures.
Scott Bessent, Trump's pick for treasury secretary, said during his January 16 confirmation hearing that he "100 percent" supports intensifying sanctions on Russian oil producers to bring Moscow "to the table," if Trump requests it.
Trump alluded to the use of sanctions when speaking to reporters on January 21. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said during his confirmation hearing that sanctions -- both applying and lifting them -- could enter discussions to end the nearly three-year war.
While saying both Russia and Ukraine will have to make "concessions" to reach a peace deal, Rubio said "sanctions and the release of sanctions" would "have to be part of this conversation in terms of bringing about a…resolution."
Trump could also pressure Putin into talks by threatening increased military support for Ukraine and changing the dynamic on the battlefield.
Whether Trump will elect this path remains to be seen, especially given that he promised on the campaign trail to pull financial support for Ukraine and criticized the Biden administration during his inaugural address for "unlimited funding to the defense of foreign borders."
"Russia has never signaled a readiness to compromise," said Dumoulin, the former diplomat. "Trump's main options are to accept Moscow's conditions or look to change them."