Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC Nashville
by Andrew Richardson · MMAmania.comAndrew Richardson is a professional fighter who trains at Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, Calif., providing MMAmania.com (and its readers) with expert technical fighter breakdowns, insight and analysis you can't get anywhere else.
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight sluggers Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira will throw down TONIGHT (Sat., July 12, 2025) at UFC Nashville inside Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.
Lewis, 40, is certainly in the twilight of his career. Fortunately, “Black Beast” has always been more reliant on grit and punching power than speed or fancy technique, so a bit of a slowdown hasn’t affected his position too terribly. He’s still a ranked contender, winner of two of his last three, and UFC’s all-time KO king.
He’s settled into more of a gatekeeping role, however, and Teixeira is the closest thing Heavyweight has to a hot new name. The gigantic Brazilian has bulldozed everyone he’s met, including his single UFC appearance against Justin Tafa. He’s taking a massive leap in competition, so it’s sink-or-swim time for the 25-year-old prospect.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Lewis vs. Teixeira Betting Odds
- Derrick Lewis victory: +240
- Derrick Lewis via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
- Derrick Lewis via submission: +3500
- Derrick Lewis via decision: +1600
- Tallison Teixeira victory: -298
- Tallison Teixeira via TKO/KO/DQ: -185
- Tallison Teixeira via submission: +750
- Tallison Teixeira via decision: +1200
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Lewis Wins
Lewis is the progenitor of the swang-and-bang, just-stand-up fighting systems. An aggressive slugger with the ability to throw with huge power even while dead tired, Lewis has toppled many quality fighters with the exact same gameplan for more than one decade now.
The gameplan is this: explode with wild distance kicks, occasional combinations and a sporadic trip takedown attempt. If stranded at distance or getting wrestled, wait for the opponent to fatigue and then attempt to explode once more. It’s a simple strategy, but it’s worked more often than not!
Are there any adjustments to make here and does Lewis have the ability to make them? I’m not convinced. Teixeira is going to blast Lewis with long distance kicks, but Lewis really just has to get his guard up and wait them out. There’s no way a massive Heavyweight with no second round experience doesn’t gas out throwing huge round kicks. If Lewis can just weather that early storm, his experience and power will take over sooner than later.
How Teixeira Wins
It’s nice to be talking about a Heavyweight on the right side of 30. Teixeira clearly has monstrous physical gifts and has honed some offensive skills to capitalize upon them. However, much of his game remains unknown.
We have seen Lewis taken apart at distance countless times. Fighters like Ciryl Gane and even Travis Browne have made Lewis absolutely miserable over the years by kicking him mercilessly in the legs and belly, because Lewis has no consistent way to close distance. He can only burst forward once every minute or two, giving rangy fighters plenty of time to break him down.
Managing the gas tank will be key, however. I mentioned Browne for a reason: he pummeled Lewis with kicks for 1.5 rounds, got a little tired, and then wound up brutalized by power shots one minute later. If Teixeira wants to avoid that fate, he cannot count on the early knockout. He would be far better advised to just keep chipping away at Lewis’ base until “The Black Beast” has no legs to stand on then let him crumble.
Lewis vs. Teixeira Prediction
We have evidence that Teixeira is a good prospect, and it’s generally a bad idea to go against a 15-year difference in age. But, this is Heavyweight! The old eat the young as often as not. The learning curve is much steeper among the big boys, where experience is debatably more valuable than speed.
To win this bout, Teixeira probably has to blow Lewis out of the water. I doubt he’s developed the MMA maturity to follow the more patient strategy outlined above. That’s possible, but the only person to do so in recent years was Sergei Pavlovich, the most purely destructive hitter in recent memory. Lewis has beaten many, many opponents by out-lasting their initial barrage and then paying them back a minute or two later. Furthermore, he might be able to land that silly trip takedown and just win outright! We have no real idea about how Teixeira’s ground game will hold up at UFC’s level, and odds are his abilities are more in line with Tai Tuivasa’s grappling than Jailton Almeida.
I am not yet sold on Teixeira as a current top contender nor Lewis as completely washed. Being really tall is not consistently a path to being an elite fighter. “The Black Beast” cometh once more.
Prediction: Lewis via knockout
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HEAVY LEATHER! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) crashes Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, on Sat., July 12, 2025, with UFC Nashville. Record-setting knockout artist, Derrick Lewis, collides with undefeated up-and-comer, Tallison Teixeira, in a blistering main event mashup scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Nashville’s co-main event, former welterweight title challenger, Stephen Thompson, locks horns with once-beaten Brazilian bruiser, Gabriel Bonfim, with a spot in the welterweight Top 15 up for grabs.
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