Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul: Odds, full fight preview and prediction

Andrew Richardson is a professional fighter who trains at Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, Calif., providing MMAmania.com (and its readers) with expert technical fighter breakdowns, insight and analysis you can't get anywhere else.

Former Heavyweight boxing champion of the world, Mike Tyson, returns to professional boxing for the first time in two decades opposite “Problem Child,” Jake Paul, TONIGHT (Fri., Nov. 15, 2024) from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

This is, quite simply, the biggest spectacle in recent combat sports memory ... for better or worse.

It’s far from the best boxing match, of course, but Tyson and Paul are a pair of massive figures in pop culture, and their fight will air live on the world’s biggest streaming service for no additional subscription cost. That’s a recipe for everyone and their mother to tune in, and water coolers around the globe will be occupied by hot takes and allegations of fight-fixing come Monday.

As for the fight itself?

That’s probably less interesting than the overall scene, as it’s an old, long-retired legend versus a young knockout artist. Tyson will need something special to land on the right side of the highlight reel, but if there’s any 58-year-old nobody wants to get cracked by, it’s still “Iron” Mike.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Paul Vs. Tyson Betting Odds

• Jake Paul victory: -210
• Jake Paul via TKO/KO/DQ: +140
• Jake Paul via decision: +280
• Mike Tyson victory: +170
• Mike Tyson via TKO/KO/DQ: +250
• Mike Tyson via decision: +1000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Paul Wins

Paul is not an expert boxer. He does, however, train hard with some of the best coaches and sparring partners money can buy and has come a long way over the last few years. Equally important here is the simple fact that Paul is a solid athlete at the height of his abilities.

Famously, power is the last attribute to go, which in Tyson’s case warrants some level of concern, because even a diminished Tyson right hand sounds like something to be avoided. Paul’s own right hand is heavy, but he would be wise to avoid an immediate exchange of power blows with the legend, particularly since there’s every chance Tyson’s body cannot hold up for more than a round or two.

As such, I’d like to see Paul moving behind the jab. Poke Tyson in the body and get a sense of his current speed and power. This fighting going long favors Paul anyway, so he can afford to take a moment and really figure out what he’s gotten himself into.

How Tyson Wins

At his prime, Mike Tyson was one of the most volatile forces in boxing history. A vicious combination of fast head movement, ripping counters, and a surprisingly adept jab, Tyson closed distance with a unique urgency that resulted in fast finishes time and time again.

I’m going to be optimistic and assume Tyson can still pull the trigger and move reasonably well for a couple rounds. In that case, I think there’s a clear opening for him to exploit. Mike Perry was undersized and outclassed against Jake Paul, but he still managed to land quite a few shots on the jawline by slipping inside the jab and coming forward with his left hook.

That’s a classic Tyson shot, and I see no reason why it couldn’t work against less than six months later. To help set it up, Tyson should be jabbing to draw out Paul’s own jab, and he should be showing the overhand right counter. Then, he can switch it up by slipping inside and firing the left.

Otherwise, the usual mix of head movement and combination punching will be the ticket to closing distance and doing damage.

Paul vs. Tyson Prediction

This is a silly match up, and I’m not going to offer it any more analysis than should be necessary.

If you know combat sports at all, you understand that youth and aggression win fights as often as good technique. That’s true when we’re talking about five and ten year gaps, let alone three full decades! Paul is a hitter, and any punch of his that glances upside the head of Tyson will hurt the legendary boxer, because he’s an old man now.

Don’t overthink this ahead of time and try not to be too sad afterward.

Prediction: Paul via knockout (+140)

For much more on the upcoming Paul vs. Tyson boxing spectacle click here.