Gemini Titan to power crypto prediction markets for Apex brokerages

Gemini Space Station and Apex Fintech Solutions have signed a letter of intent that would make Gemini Titan the exclusive regulated venue for crypto prediction contracts distributed to brokerage customers through Apex’s futures commission merchant.

Summary

• Gemini and Apex have signed a letter of intent to distribute crypto prediction markets through Apex’s brokerage network.
• Gemini Titan would become the exclusive regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s FCM.
• Brokerages using the service would rely on Gemini for execution and clearing of crypto prediction contracts.
• The companies may also work together on sports, economic and financial event contracts on a non-exclusive basis.

Gemini and Apex said Monday that brokerages offering crypto event contracts through Apex’s Futures Commission Merchant, or FCM, would use Gemini for execution and clearing under the proposed arrangement, extending an existing relationship between the two financial companies into prediction markets.

The agreement remains subject to final terms, which the companies expect to work out over the coming weeks. Once completed, brokerage firms connected to Apex would be able to offer crypto event contracts without establishing a separate execution and clearing arrangement with Gemini Titan.

“Under the alliance, brokerages that offer crypto event contracts through Apex’s FCM will use Gemini for execution and clearing,” the companies said.

Other prediction-market categories could also become part of the relationship. Gemini and Apex said they may work together on contracts covering sports, economic events and financial markets, although those areas would be handled on a non-exclusive basis.

Gemini prediction markets would gain another distribution channel

The planned arrangement would give Gemini Titan access to brokerage customers using Apex infrastructure as the crypto exchange builds out a prediction-market business launched less than a year ago.

Gemini entered the regulated U.S. prediction-market sector after Titan received a Designated Contract Market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in December 2025.

As crypto.news previously reported, Gemini Titan secured the CFTC authorization following a roughly five-year review, allowing the company to operate a federally regulated event-contract market in the United States.

Gemini began offering prediction markets shortly afterward, giving eligible customers access to contracts whose payouts depend on specified future outcomes.

Titan has since recorded more than 225 million event contracts traded, according to Gemini’s second-quarter 2026 earnings presentation. The company also reported more than 27,000 cumulative traders on the platform.

Prediction markets remain a relatively small revenue source for Gemini despite the increase in contract activity. Gemini reported about $500,000 in prediction-market revenue during the second quarter, compared with company-wide revenue of $45.5 million.

The business had already crossed 100 million contracts and 20,000 traders by the first quarter, when prediction-market revenue stood at roughly $400,000, according to an earlier company update.

Gemini’s founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss have identified prediction markets as one of the central parts of the company’s Gemini 2.0 strategy alongside artificial intelligence.

“Our thesis is that prediction markets will be as big or bigger than today’s capital markets,” the Winklevoss twins previously said. “Predictions will be the machine within our app to see the future. A truth machine.”

Gemini has also brought derivatives clearing in-house

Gemini added another regulatory component to its prediction-market infrastructure in April when its Olympus subsidiary received approval to operate as a Derivatives Clearing Organization.

The CFTC clearing approval gave Gemini Olympus authority to clear derivatives and provided the company with an affiliated clearing operation alongside Titan’s DCM license.

With Titan operating the regulated marketplace and Olympus providing clearing infrastructure, Gemini gained the ability to handle more of the derivatives trade lifecycle within its own group.

The April authorization covers infrastructure that can support futures, options, perpetual contracts and prediction markets. Gemini had already disclosed plans to study additional regulated crypto derivatives for U.S. customers after Titan obtained its DCM license.

Gemini said during its second-quarter update that its derivatives clearinghouse went live on Aug. 4, bringing settlement of prediction contracts under the company’s own infrastructure.

Such capabilities become relevant to the Apex agreement because the proposed arrangement specifically places both execution and clearing of crypto event contracts with Gemini.

Apex relationship already extends to U.S. stock trading

Gemini and Apex were already working together before Monday’s prediction-market agreement.

In July, Gemini introduced commission-free U.S. stock trading for eligible customers, with Apex Clearing Corporation providing custody and trade clearing for the service.

The stock trading rollout allowed Gemini customers to trade thousands of U.S.-listed equities while remaining within the company’s application.

Nasdaq provides real-time market data for the service, while Apex handles custody, execution-related infrastructure and clearing.

Gemini launched the product after updating its Financial Industry Regulatory Authority broker-dealer registration so that it could operate as an introducing broker. Customer orders could consequently be routed through the supporting brokerage infrastructure without Gemini taking on every part of the securities transaction itself.

The company has been adding products outside spot cryptocurrency trading as it develops a platform spanning crypto, equities, derivatives, credit cards, staking and prediction markets.

Prediction markets have also been combined with Gemini’s artificial-intelligence products. In May, the company introduced a Grok prediction feature that uses information including user positions, watchlists and previous prediction activity to personalize the contracts displayed to customers.

Gemini said the feature focuses on market discovery rather than allowing the AI system to execute trades automatically.

Prediction markets face competition and regulatory disputes

Gemini Titan operates in a sector where Kalshi and Polymarket account for substantially more trading activity, with the two platforms recording tens of billions of dollars in monthly volume.

Kalshi operates under a CFTC-regulated structure in the United States, while Polymarket has pursued its own route back into the U.S. market after previously restricting American customers.

Regulatory disputes have also developed over whether federally regulated event contracts can be subject to separate state gambling laws.

New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Gemini Titan and Coinbase Financial Markets in April, alleging that prediction contracts offered by the companies violated state gambling rules.

The state argued that certain event contracts amounted to gambling products offered without authorization from the New York State Gaming Commission. Gemini and other prediction-market operators have relied on their federal derivatives registrations in disputes over which regulators have authority over such products.

Similar legal fights have spread to other states. Wisconsin later sued Kalshi, Coinbase and Polymarket over prediction markets, with state regulators challenging the companies’ argument that federal commodities oversight takes precedence over state gambling laws.

Gemini’s federally regulated infrastructure has continued operating while those cases progress. Titan holds the company’s DCM authorization, while Olympus holds its DCO license for clearing derivatives.

The Apex agreement has not yet reached the definitive-contract stage. Gemini and Apex said they expect to finalize the remaining details of their proposed collaboration in the coming weeks.