Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Onto Lead In 3 New Polls

08 Oct 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seeming dead heat less than five weeks before the election according to a string of surveys this month, with the latest three big polls showing Harris maintaining a national lead, though it might be tightening.

Vice President Kamala Harris listens to her husband Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff speak before they ... [+] plant a pomegranate tree at the Vice President's residence at the U.S. Naval Observatory on October 7, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)Getty Images

Key Facts

Harris leads Trump 46% to 43% in a four-day Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday, after leading him by six points in a Sept. 20-23 Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Harris is up 49% to 46% in a New York Times/Siena poll out Tuesday, the first time she’s led Trump in the groups’ polling since July.

Harris leads by five points in Morning Consult’s weekly poll, also released Tuesday, consistent with her standing in last week’s Morning Consult survey.

Harris was ahead in three polls out last week: 50% to 48% in an Emerson poll released Thursday, 49% to 44%, in an Oct. 2 Susquehanna poll, and by three points in an Economist/YouGov poll out Wednesday, margins equal to Economist/YouGov’s previous poll taken Sept. 21-24.

Three other polls over the past month—a Quinnipiac survey released Sept. 24, a New York Times/Siena poll out Sept. 19 and a CNN/SSRS poll released Sept. 24—showed Trump and Harris tied, while virtually all other polls show Harris ahead.

Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.

Big Number

2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with a 2.6-point lead, and Nate Silver has Harris up three points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?

Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to Cook Political Report survey released Wednesday. Harris leads Trump in five of the states, Trump is up by two points in Georgia, and they’re tied in North Carolina.

Surprising Fact

A poll from NBC News released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll—which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters—showed 54% supported Harris compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure who they would vote for. The support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than past leads Democratic candidates have had, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polling and 50-point lead in 2016 polling. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

How Did The Debate Impact Polls?

Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to plateau, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate surveys show the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the horserace between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sept. 19 found the majority of voters in every demographic gave positive reviews of Harris’ Sept. 10 debate performance, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days following the debate on Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.

Tangent

Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead in Iowa over Biden from 18 points in June to four points in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted Sept. 8-11 by longtime pollster Ann Selzer, known for her accuracy.

Key Background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in polls is coupled with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14.