Prospects of Ukraine peace deal brighten after Trump-Zelensky meeting

Transactionist U.S. President uses big arms deal to persuade Zelensky

By Nitya Chakraborty

The prospects of arriving at a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia to end the nearly three and half year old war have brightened after the Monday meeting of President Donald Trump with the Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in the presence of the major European government heads. As a follow up, President Putin will be meeting Zelensky at a one on one meeting within next few days in a third country followed by a trilateral meeting to be attended by Trump.

Two issues on which Trump was insistent was that Ukraine will not get back Crimea which Russia took control in 2014 and Ukraine will have to give up its ambition to become a member of NATO. To compensate this, Trump agreed to security guarantee to Ukraine by the European powers as also the USA. There are issues about land swapping. Those have been discussed but Trump has asked Zelensky to talk with Putin bilaterally. This actual control issue of some the areas remain unresolved as of now and this hurdle has to be crossed at the bilateral meeting. But if the US sources are to be believed, Trump has some proposals on land swapping which might be the basis for an understanding at the next meeting.

Overall, the situation is positive as far as the prospects of ending the Ukraine war finally. President Putin has talked of the bilateral meeting within next two weeks, but Trump is in a hurry and so is Zelensky. Possibility is there, the bilateral one on one meeting will be held much before that. For Trump, it is a matter of personal prestige as any failure this time in arriving at a peace agreement will be taken as his personal failure also as a peace maker.

In the entire efforts at making deal to end the Ukraine war, Trump has used trade and arms purchases from the USA as a bait to persuade the recalcitrant countries to come to agreement. This approach has been pursued with more vigour in the case of Ukraine which is very rich in minerals including rare earth but badly needs huge arms to modernize more its armed forces and air power.

Trump took advantage of this and extracted a US$ 500 billion deal in March/April this year from Ukraine President in the first round of talks for ending Ukraine war, and in the current round, Zelensky has agreed to buy $ 90 billion arms from the USA to modernize its army. Talks have been held to allow Ukraine to export its own manufactured drones to the USA. After this$90billion purchase of arms from the US companies, Ukraine will assess its own requirements and place orders. Thus, Trump has opened up a big opportunity for the US defence companies in the US market, irrespective of the peace deal.

Ukraine, with its $12.5 trillion in mineral wealth – including 20% of global titanium, significant lithium, and rare earths is a big attractive market to both Trump and Putin. While Trump is interested in the mineral wealth of Ukraine and already he has made a big deal, Putin is equally interested in getting control of big deposits of coal, gas and rare earth in some provinces of Ukraine like Donesk, Luhansk and Kherson. These were the part of Soviet Union in the communist rule. President Putin who was a leading member of the CPSU and the chief of KGB, still dreams of Greater Russia. His annexation of some strategic areas of Ukraine has to do with his nationalistic ambitions on Greater Russia, apart from taking steps to combat threat from NATO.

The US, under Trump’s second administration, counters with its own expansionist agenda. The April 2025 Ukraine-United States Mineral Resources Agreement ties Kyiv’s economic recovery to American corporates.. This deal subjugates Ukraine’s resources to US firms seeking to counter China’s dominance in rare earth processing. In the latest US-China trade deal, Trump was able to extract a concession from China on resuming supply of rare earth minerals to the US market, but this was of small quantity. Trump wants to have bigger share of the rare earth minerals market and collaboration with Ukraine can ensure that.

Ukraine economy is suffering in the last three and half years of war since February 24, 2022. The government badly needs massive financial support to rebuild its economy. That is not possible without big help from the USA. In 2022, the GDP of Ukraine went down by 28.8 per cent, but it recovered to 5.3 per cent in 2023 and 3.5 per cent in 2024. In 2025, the projected GDP growth is only 2 per cent. Thousands of young soldiers have died. Ukraine people are tired of the war ravages. They are looking for a respite.

Nearly 33 million population of the country generally maintain a good living standard with the per capita GDP at $ 6261 projected in 2025. Sector wise services contribute 60 per cent to the GDP, industry 28.6 per cent and agriculture 12.2 per cent. Ukraine will need a massive rehabilitation and reconstruction programme if the war finally ends. But if the peace agreement is not reached at the proposed bilateral and trilateral meetings and the war intensifies, the impact on the Ukraine economy will be tragic. Ukraine people are looking at the coming meetings with big expectations that their woes will be over. (IPA Service)