Bangladesh plunges into fresh turbulence after Tribunal’s death penalty to Sheikh Hasina

For PM Modi, the diplomatic crisis accentuates as the indicted challenges from Indian soil

By Nitya Chakraborty

Bangladesh plunged into a fresh turbulence on Monday, November 17 after the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) announced its verdict sentencing to death former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for” crimes against humanity” committed during last year’s student led agitation that led to the fall of her Awami League Government on August 5, 2024.

The ICT set up by the interim Government of Bangladesh headed by Chief Advisor Dr. Muhammad Yunus also indicted Sheikh Hasina on two other counts. The verdict was on expected lines. Sheikh Hasina who has been staying in India since August 5 afternoon last year, was in a challenging mood. She said that the Tribunal was rigged. She denied every single charge and castigated Tribunal for not giving the Awami League and herself a fair chance to defend themselves

In a belligerent mood, Sheikh Hasina said in her statement “the verdict revealed the brazen and murderous intent of extremist figures on an unelected government with no democratic mandate”. She even charged the Yunus regime by saying that the Islamic extremists inside the present administration including figures from Hizbut Tahir seek to undermine Bangladesh’s strong tradition of a secular government.”

Monday’s development took place less than three months before the scheduled general elections in Bangladesh in February 2026. Though, the exact date will be announced by the Election Commission shortly, the interim Government chief announced on Thursday last both the general elections and the referendum on the July charter would take place on the same day in February. All the political parties excluding the banned Awami League are in the thick of the election battle as this verdict was announced on Monday afternoon.

The security situation was tense during the day as Awami League called for a lock down in Dhaka and the areas surrounding the Court. Army pickets were stationed in all important points of the nation’s capital. There were sporadic explosions and bomb attacks. Hasina has been active in the last few weeks and as sources indicate that the Awami League supporters including the leaders who were earlier hiding, are coming out to participate in demonstrations and bandhs. It seems they have decided to show their strength in public. For Awami League, after this verdict, their members will be facing new attacks and they will have to meet the challenge.

As a result, the coming few weeks are going to be stormy though the major political parties like BNP, Jamaat e Islami, NCP and others will be busy in choosing their own candidates and participating in the election campaign. A recent opinion poll about the coming elections carried out by a private agency indicated that the Awami League, despite support has still support of more than 20 per cent just below the BNP. The other parties are ranking much below. This has given a boost to the morale of the Awami League supporters but at the same time, the divided anti- League political parties are getting frightened and trying to have common approach against any fresh move by the Awami League.

While at the ground level of politics, the situation in Bangladesh has further engulfed in turmoil, for India, especially, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the task has become tougher. This tackling of Sheikh Hasina’s death penalty verdict and allowing her to carry on her campaign from Indian soil, will be the biggest diplomatic challenge for Narendra Modi. Sheikh Hasina has been campaigning and issuing statement against the Yunus government in the recent weeks. This could not have been possible without the tacit support of the Indian government. Earlier, a number of times, the Bangladesh government had requested India not to allow Sheikh Hasina to use Indian soil for her political actions against the Yunus govt. But Modi government has not taken any note of that. And now the latest is the statement of Hasina against the verdict and the ICT itself.

India can not hand over Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh at this time, though Bangladesh will put maximum diplomatic pressure at international level to persuade India to the handing over of Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh. Pakistan and some other Muslim nations may support Bangladesh on this. India will have to be ready for that type of international pressure. For Dr. Yunus, this is a golden opportunity to take on his sworn enemy Sheikh Hasina. He will do everything to organize deportation of Sheikh Hasina from India. He has political ambitions though he does not give that impression in public. If he succeeds in his attempt before the general elections, Dr. Yunus can be the accepted leader of the Bangladesh political parties for the post of President of the new Government after the February elections.

India is on a sticky wicket after Monday’s death penalty verdict on Sheikh Hasina. Only exceptional diplomatic dexterity of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi can save India in this situation. It fully depends on Narendra Modi how he deals with this delicate situation keeping into account India’s best interests in terms of national security. Next few weeks are crucial for Indian diplomacy. (IPA Service)