Trump is facing his moment of Truth in Iran war with isolation from NATO

On eighteenth day, the U.S. President looked clueless on his forward strategy

By Nitya Chakraborty

On Wednesday, the 18th day of the U.S.-Israel combo’s war against Iran, Trump got two bad news simultaneously which made him ponder on how to go about on his next forward strategy to ensure Iran’s submission to the U.S. might. The first news was the European governments have refused to respond to Trump’s request to send their warships to the Strait of Hormuz to facilitate the passage of the oil tankers. The second news was Iran is allowing ships to pass through strait of Hormuz only if they pay in Chinese yuan, not in dollars.

This means that China has reached an understanding with Iran, though the terms are not known. But the net outcome is that China with full support of Tehran is taking the advantage of Hormuz blockade by Iran and earning money. For Trump, this could not have come at a more worse time. The US President persuaded his treasury secretary Scott Bessent to fix a meeting with the Chinese trade minister He Lifang to prepare the ground for his meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in April this year. China reluctantly agreed to have such a meeting amidst Iran war. The meeting started in Paris on Sunday and continued on Monday also.

The White House on its own decided on the dates of the summit from March 31 to April 2 but there was no confirmation from the Chinese side. In fact, Trump wanted to use the Paris meeting as a bait to keep China on his side hinting that he was so much anxious to hold the meeting with the Chinese President to conclude that historic trade deal and understanding on other contentious issues. But this trick of Trump did not click. He is now furious. He has announced that the proposed visit to China will be delayed though the White House Sources said that the summit should take place by April end itself. Trump also sent the same request to China for sending ships to strait of Hormuz but China has also refused on the lines of European nations. Trump was defied by both.

As regards European response, it was so much distressing to Trump that he said that this stand of Europe is very bad for NATO. There was enough hint that he would take appropriate action to these European members of NATO. German reaction was most disconcerting to Trump. Germany ruled out participation in any military activity, including efforts to reopen the strait. “There was never a joint decision on whether to intervene. That is why the question of how Germany might contribute militarily does not arise. We will not do so,” the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said.

He added: “This Iranian regime must come to an end,” but that “based on all the experience we have gained in previous years and decades, bombing it into submission is, in all likelihood, not the right approach.”

German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, said: “This is not our war, we have not started it. What does Donald Trump expect from a handful of European frigates in the strait of Hormuz that the mighty US navy cannot manage alone? This is the question I find myself asking.” Britain, France, Italy also endorsed German President’s view and made it clear that they were in no position to send warships to Strait of Hormuz as per Trump’s request.

So where does Trump go from here? Pentagon said in its report early this month that Iran has the capacity to take this war upto September this year and this will be too costly for the USA. Trump did not believe in Pentagon. He was talking of maximum a fortnight to make Iran surrender. Now, on the 18th day, no such sign is there. Trump can take the war to the next level by using a large number of troops including marines to take over the oil installations and the nuclear installations. That step will have dangerous dimensions even if he succeeds.

So far, it has been a sky war, few American lives have been lost. The injured number around only 200. But if Trump uses ground troops, the death toll will be in thousands. That will be a political disaster for Trump in this year of midterm polls in November. The trends are already there that Democrats are winning. The death of US soldiers is very sensitive for the American voters. The Republican Party also can not take this risk. For Trump, this is the moment of truth. (IPA Service)