Why do civilians often die in Nigerian military strikes that target rebels?

The Nigerian military has mistakenly killed hundreds of civilians in airstrikes targeting armed groups in the nation's conflict-battered north over the years, many of them locals bombed in their villages.

The latest misfire was on Saturday when the Nigerian air force bombarded rebels in the conflict-battered northwestern Zamfara State but ended up erroneously killing civilians working with a community security outfit, the state government said. Residents told the Associated Press that at least 20 civilians were killed.

Since 2017, the military has killed about 400 civilians, according to SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based research firm that gathered reports and data from affected villages regarding the airstrikes.

Rights groups and citizens have expressed concern over the military's actions in Africa's most populous country, which has been battling violent security crises on multiple fronts for many years.

Nigeria's Defense Chief Gen. Christopher Musa has said the military has been improving its human rights record and is holding its personnel to account.

The armed groups causing havoc in Nigeria

Besides the Boko Haram Islamic extremist group which launched an insurgency in 2009 to establish its radical interpretation of Islamic law, or Sharia, in the northeast, there have been dozens of armed groups.

They are mostly former herdsmen caught up in decadeslong conflict with farming communities over access to land and water. Once armed with sticks, the groups now carry out attacks with guns that have been smuggled into the country, resulting in roughly thousands of deaths yearly.

The armed groups carry out mass killings and kidnappings for ransom in the northwest and central regions. They also extort taxes from the communities they terrorize, using the funds to support their operations in addition to the money gotten from ransom payments, analysts said.

Why does the military use airstrikes?

These armed groups operate in vast forest enclaves, planning and launching attacks that sometimes last for days in villages with inadequate security presence. They rarely remain in one location for long, frequently relocating and blending in with local communities to evade detection.

As a result, the Nigerian military often relies on airstrikes to target the rebels as they move around and in their hideouts, especially in areas where ground assaults are difficult.

Why are there civilian causalities?

Authorities say it can be challenging to avoid civilian casualties in air raids because armed groups often use civilians as human shields.

“Bandits and terrorists, unlike professional soldiers, don’t respect the rules of engagement. They don’t care about killing their hostages if they come under attack,” Nigeria’s former President Muhammadu Buhari once said.

However, the frequent mistakes resulting in civilian deaths can be also attributed to loopholes in intelligence gathering as well as insufficient coordination between ground troops, air assets, and stakeholders, said Senator Iroegbu, an Abuja-based security analyst.

Promises of investigations

The Nigerian government and military often promise to investigate the accidental airstrikes to prevent a reoccurrence. Analysts, however, say the problem has persisted and such investigations often don't lead to anything.

In 2024, the Nigerian military took a rare measure to prosecute two of its personnel over an accidental airstrike that killed over 80 civilians in Kaduna State. It also promised to release the report of its investigation into the incident but has not done so.

How can civilian casualties be curbed?

One key step is improved investment in pilot training and aircrew development as well as upgrading aircraft and targeting systems," said Oluwole Ojewale with the Africa-focused Institute for Security Studies.

The military needs to also build trust and secure the support of local communities, whose intelligence on armed group movements is crucial to accurately target and defeat them, he said.