Haryana Assembly elections: Party, the most critical factor in voting

The central leadership of the BJP appeared to have a greater impact in swaying the party’s voters as compared to the central leadership of the Congress

About six of every 10 respondents in the Lokniti-CSDS survey indicated that the party was the most critical factor in deciding who to vote for. Another one-thirds (35%) believed that the MLA candidate from their constituency swayed their decision. A minuscule share mentioned the chief ministerial candidate in determining their voting preferences (Table 1). This could be well linked to the fact that there were multiple competitors in the chief ministerial race both within the BJP and Congress.

When it came to the respondents’ preferred Chief Minister candidate, there was a close race between two key leaders of the Congress and BJP. Incumbent BJP Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini was mentioned by one-third (33%) of the respondents, while two-time Congress Chief Minister Bhupinder Hooda was close behind. (Table 2). The support for the top two names was clearly on party lines. About seven of every 10 BJP voters favoured Mr. Saini, while a similar share of Congress voters endorsed Mr. Hooda as their preferred choice. One-seventh (14%) of Congress voters referred to Kumari Shelja as their preferred option while one in every 10 BJP voters took the name of former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar (Table 3).

The respondents felt that the leadership tussle between Mr. Hooda and Kumari Selja adversely impacted the Congress. Nearly six of every 10 respondents (59%) said that this tussle did have an adverse impact. The remaining one-fourth said it had no impact or very little impact (Table 4).

The survey also tapped the impact of the Central leaders of the two major parties. More than two-thirds of the BJP voters said that even without Narendra Modi’s leadership, they would have voted for the BJP. However, two of every 10 did assert that they may have changed their voting preference if Mr. Modi did not lead the BJP (Table 5). Among Congress voters, close to three-fourth of the respondents said that even if Rahul Gandhi did not lead the Congress, they would continue to vote for the party (Table 6). A little over one in every 10 said that they would change the way they voted if Mr. Gandhi was not leading the Congress.

Clearly, Mr. Modi had a greater sway over BJP voters compared to the influence that Mr. Gandhi had over Congress voters.

CSDS-Lokniti survey

• How the BJP snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the Haryana elections

• Haryana Assembly elections: A good report card for the BJP

• From protests to polls: farmers backed the Congress in Haryana

• BJP bags urban support, Congress holds a slight edge among rural voters

• Jats versus others: the caste factor at play in Haryana

Sandeep Shastri is Director-Academics, NITTE Education Trust, and National Coordinator, Lokniti Network

Published - October 10, 2024 03:16 am IST