World War 3 fears as Iran attack could see Israel retaliate against their nuclear programme

The ramping up of military action by Israel was done despite western calls for calm as the world braces for further violence. The Mirror explains what is happening now - and next

Iran's attack tonight was a long time in coming after Tehran appeared to show relative restraint but could not wait any longer - now the major question is what Israel does next.

It is highly likely that now Israel will launch major missile attacks against Iran’s nuclear missile programme in the belief that it has no choice. The problem with this is that Iran may well see this as an existential threat as its entire raison d’etre from the 1979 revolution has been to strong arm its way into becoming the Middle East’s power broker. Iran backing down now will be deemed a poor look inside the Tehran regime - and the momentum towards all-out war and continued missile exchanges may be unstoppable.

The Iranian action was the long awaited revenge strike by Iran for having lost so many commanders in its Hezbollah proxy force - first the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and then the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the Lebanese militant group’s leader. Attacks on Hezbollah broke Iran’s red lines as this is Iran’s most valuable asset abroad, an extension of its military and terrorist hegemony.

Tonight's missile strike means the ongoing violence could last possibly a few months - the war in 2006 lasted just over a month but it is likely Israel wanted to seize the opportunity whilst Hezbollah was so crippled, having lost hundreds of fighters and commanders in air-strikes. But the major jeopardy has happened - Tehran finally has decided to react and launch major strikes against Israel in support of its Lebanese proxy.

Israel’s calculation may have been that if Iran did not get involved overtly, the west led by the United States will step in anyway in support of Tel Aviv. But it has now attacked and Iran, whilst believing it has saved face may face major attacks from Israel in the coming hours and days.

This is now an overt military confrontation between Israel and Iran - with possibly the west likely to be sucked in within days. A wider regional war will cause instability, with its knock-on effects globally.

Already a million have been displaced in Lebanon - but Iran’s loose allies Russia, North Korea and China are watching events and there is an outside possibility of World War Three, given the conflict in Ukraine. Others believe that has already started - it just looks different in what modern analysts call “hybrid warfare” which is not only fought in the trenches but behind the scenes, with covert military operations, destabilising missions, disinformation campaigns, election interference and hacking etc.

The fear that Iran would take action has been building since Israel dramatically upped the ante with incursions into Lebanon. Earlier, troops and tanks poured across the front after weeks of devastating air-strikes crippled Hezbollah. The Israeli air campaign, which killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday, had softened up the network for a ground attack. But the ramping up of military action by Israel was done despite western calls for diplomacy and calm as the world braces for an explosion of violence.

The IDF incursions came in the wake of Hezbollah firing 8,000 rockets and other missiles into Israel since the October 7 Hamas attacks from Gaza on mostly civilians, forcing between 60,000 and 80,000 Israelis to flee their homes near the northern border. Practically PM Benjamin Netanyahu wants them to go home safely - whilst militarily he also wants to eradicate the Hezbollah threat for a long-time. It is possible Israel wants to drive Hezbollah 18 miles north back over the Litani River to create a buffer. But only ground troops can do this by destroying Hezbollah’s attack tunnels and underground caches. Or, Israel may go much further as it did in 2006.

Israeli attacks have killed more than 1,000 people in the past two weeks, including 87 children and 56 women and many Hezbollah members. Prime Minister Najib Mikati says as many as one million people - a fifth of the population - might have fled their homes. Even some Syrian refugees have fled back into their home country, fearing Israeli attacks. Lebanon is already in a desperate economic crisis and in the weeks and months to come this war will have a knock on effect on the wider region which will inevitably spread globally.