Is Russia Getting Ready for a Nuclear War with NATO over Ukraine?
Vladimir Putin has signed an update to Russia's nuclear doctrine, coinciding with the 1,000th day of the war in Ukraine. While the doctrine reaffirms nuclear weapons as a last resort to safeguard Russia's sovereignty, it expands the scope of threats warranting nuclear deterrence, including attacks by non-nuclear states backed by nuclear powers.
by Peter Suciu · The National InterestWhat You Need to Know: Vladimir Putin has signed an update to Russia's nuclear doctrine, coinciding with the 1,000th day of the war in Ukraine. While the doctrine reaffirms nuclear weapons as a last resort to safeguard Russia's sovereignty, it expands the scope of threats warranting nuclear deterrence, including attacks by non-nuclear states backed by nuclear powers.
-The change follows the U.S. approval for Ukraine to use long-range missiles inside Russia, with Moscow warning it could interpret such strikes as a NATO-led attack.
-Dmitry Medvedev has cautioned that this shift increases the risk of World War III.
Grim Milestone: Russia Marks 1,000 Days of War with New Nuclear Threats
Russian President Vladimir Putin approved changes to his country's nuclear doctrine on Tuesday, which also marked the 1,000th day of the war in Ukraine. It is unclear if the signing of the decree was meant to coincide with the grim milestone for Russia's so-called "special military operation," but as it was first proposed in September, it does seem that the Kremlin carefully timed it.
Russia's nuclear doctrine updates the degree signed by Russian President Boris Yeltsin on November 2, 1993, which stated that Moscow would employ nuclear weapons in retaliation of any weapons of mass destruction – including non-nuclear – that were used against Russia or its allies.
"In addition, nuclear weapons can be used if 'aggression with ordinary weapons' against Russia poses a threat 'to the very existence of the state.' This threat may arise, in particular, in the event of direct military involvement of NATO countries in the conflict. Since 2010, Russia has included the military and political strengthening of NATO in the main military threats section of its military doctrine," Russian state media outlet Tass explained in its reporting.
The Major Change to Russia's Nuclear Doctrine
The newly signed doctrine remains largely the same and states that nuclear weapons remain the last resort to ensure the protection of Russia's sovereignty.
Yet, there is one notable difference – namely, "parameters have been added that allow the use of nuclear weapons in case of new military threats and risks for Russia. In particular, the document expanded the category of countries and military alliances that would be subject to nuclear deterrence," Tass added.
What does this mean?
Essentially, the Kremlin would see an attack from a non-nuclear state (Ukraine), backed by a nuclear power (the United States), as a joint attack on Russia. This change comes as the Biden Administration gave the green light to Ukraine to fire long-range U.S.-made missiles into Russia.
"Russia's new nuclear doctrine means NATO missiles fired against our country could be deemed an attack by the bloc on Russia. Russia could retaliate with WMD against Kiev and key NATO facilities, wherever they're located. That means World War III," Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of the Security Council of the Russian Federation wrote on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.
It may not just be missiles that the Kremlin may argue constitute an assault, and other weapons supplied by NATO could also now be seen by Moscow as being part of an attack from the West on Russia.
"Under the changes, a large attack on Russia with conventional missiles, drones or aircraft could meet the criteria for a nuclear response, as could an attack on Belarus or any critical threat to Russia's sovereignty," the BBC reported.
The Russian Ministry of Defense also claimed that Ukraine fired six U.S.-made ATACMS missiles at a facility in the Bryanks region, on the border with Ukraine. The Kremlin said five of the missiles were shot down, while the sixth was damaged.
Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.
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