Bangladesh Election 2026: BNP’s landslide victory puts Tarique Rahman on course for PM, Jamaat’s border gains raise strategic concerns

Bangladesh’s 13th parliamentary election delivered a sweeping two-thirds majority to the BNP, positioning Tarique Rahman as the next Prime Minister, while Jamaat-e-Islami secured 76 seats, many along the India border, raising strategic concerns.

Bangladesh’s 13th parliamentary election has delivered a decisive mandate, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) securing a two-thirds majority in the first general election held after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. Led by Tarique Rahman, the BNP alliance won 216 out of 300 seats, positioning Rahman to become the next Prime Minister. Jamaat-e-Islami finished second with 76 seats, while the student-led National Citizens Party (NCP), which had played a role in the political transition, managed to win only six seats.

In today’s episode of DNA, Rahul Sinha, Managing Editor of Zee News, conducted a detailed analysis of the verdict, decoding its implications from India’s perspective and examining the broader regional impact of the results.

A key concern highlighted in the analysis was Jamaat-e-Islami’s performance in constituencies located along the India-Bangladesh border. Although the party fell far short of a majority, many of its 76 seats are concentrated in districts adjoining West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram. In Satkhira, bordering West Bengal, Jamaat won all four seats. It secured three out of four seats in Kushtia and Bagerhat, and also registered victories in Rangpur, Sherpur, Naogaon, Joypurhat and Gaibandha. These gains are being closely watched in India due to past allegations of infiltration, radical activity and cross-border smuggling in these regions.

The election took place amid reported tensions involving minority communities. Despite this backdrop, a significant milestone was achieved when BNP leader Gayeshwar Chandra Roy became the first Hindu candidate elected from Dhaka, defeating his Jamaat rival by a margin of one lakh votes. In contrast, Krishna Nandi, Jamaat’s only Hindu candidate contesting from Khulna-1, was defeated.

Hardline rhetoric also featured during the campaign. Jamaat leaders, including Mamunul Haque from Dhaka-13, made controversial remarks targeting Hindus and India; Haque ultimately lost his seat. Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman had also spoken about Islamic revolution themes during the campaign. However, the overall mandate kept the party away from majority power.

The results are being interpreted as a preference for political stability over ideological experimentation. The NCP, associated with the post-ouster transition and linked politically with Muhammad Yunus, failed to gain traction with voters. Observers note that the electorate appeared to favor an established political force in the BNP over newer formations.

Tarique Rahman, son of former President Ziaur Rahman and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, returned to Bangladesh in December 2025 after 17 years in exile. Contesting his first election, he now stands poised to lead the government. During the campaign, Rahman spoke of “mutual respect and understanding” in relations with India. Following the results, India’s Prime Minister congratulated him, and diplomatic engagement between the two sides has continued, including a prior meeting in Dhaka between Rahman and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar after Khaleda Zia’s death on December 30.

Separately, developments in Pakistan’s Balochistan region were also discussed in the program. A video released by Hakkal Media purportedly showed Baloch insurgents using drones as part of “Operation Herof 2.0,” conducted between January 30 and February 5 against Pakistani security forces. The drone unit, reportedly named “Qahr,” is said to be led by Abdul Basit and to include around 300 fighters with approximately 550 drones. According to references made to a CSIS report during the analysis, low-cost drones can inflict substantial damage on conventional military assets and alter battlefield dynamics.

The episode concluded by underlining that political shifts in Bangladesh and security developments in Pakistan carry significant implications for regional stability, particularly for India’s strategic and security interests.