UAE walks out of OPEC: What it means for oil, prices and power in the Gulf

OPEC still controls over a third of international oil production and holds about 79% of proven reserves. But its strength has always depended on unity.

Abu Dhabi: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has walked out of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its wider alliance, OPEC+, from May 1. The Emirates had been considering the move for years, but the timing now carries more weight. It comes as the Iran war has shaken energy markets and forced countries to rethink how they handle oil.

This is not only about one country stepping out of a group but how oil is produced, who controls it and how supply can respond when the world needs more energy.

Why the UAE decided to quit

Officials in Abu Dhabi have made it clear that the decision is about flexibility. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said, “This is a decision that we took after a very careful and long review of all our strategies. The decision is taken at the right time in our view because it is not going to hugely impact the market as it is already undersupplied.”

In simple terms, the UAE wants to pump more oil when demand is high. Under OPEC rules, countries agree to limit production to keep prices stable. That system works when everyone agrees. It becomes frustrating when a country has the capacity to produce more but is asked to hold back.

The UAE has invested heavily in oil infrastructure. It can produce close to 5 million barrels a day, but recent quotas capped it at around 3.2 million. Walking away from OPEC removes that ceiling.

The Saudi factor

Tensions with Saudi Arabia have played a part. Riyadh leads the OPEC and has often pushed for tighter supply to support prices. On the other hand, the UAE has argued for higher output.

These disagreements are not new. They have surfaced in multiple OPEC meetings over the years. At times, the UAE came close to leaving but stayed on. This time, it has followed through.

The friction goes beyond oil. Both countries are also competing for foreign investment and regional influence, especially as Saudi Arabia pushes economic reforms under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

How big is this exit?

The UAE is one of OPEC’s top producers. It pumps about 2.9 million barrels of oil, while Saudi Arabia produces roughly 9 million barrel. Losing the UAE means the group gives up a chunk of its production strength.

Energy analysts called the move “the beginning of the end of OPEC”. With the UAE leaving, OPEC loses about 15% of its capacity and one of its most compliant members.

Saudi Arabia will struggle to keep the rest of OPEC together and effectively have to do most of the heavy lifting regarding internal compliance and market management on its own.

This presents a fundamental geopolitical change in the Middle East and oil markets.

The Iran war angle

The timing is linked to the ongoing tension involving Iran. The war has disrupted supply chains and created uncertainty in international energy markets.

Experts said the supply shortages caused by the US-Israel war on Iran need quick decisions, and that is harder in a large group like OPEC where decisions take time.

There is also the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, an important route for global oil shipments. With the strait still largely shut, even if the UAE increases output, it may not immediately flood the market.

Economists say the bigger impact will be felt later. Once normal shipping resumes, higher UAE production could add more oil to international supply.

What changes for you?

For everyday consumers, the impact will not be immediate. Oil prices depend on many factors, including war, demand and transport routes. But this move sets the stage for future shifts.

If more oil enters the market later, prices could ease. If tensions rise and supply stays tight, prices may continue to be high.

So, will other member countries also follow the UAE? The move shows Gulf countries are putting their own national interests first.

The larger impact

OPEC still controls over a third of international oil production and holds about 79% of proven reserves. But its strength has always depended on unity. The UAE’s exit tests that unity. It shows that national priorities can outweigh collective agreements when markets become unpredictable.

The message from Abu Dhabi is that it wants full control over its oil, how much it produces and how it responds to world’s demand. What happens to the oil market next will depend on how other countries react.