‘Next India-Pak war will be more dangerous’: US experts warn 1 year after Operation Sindoor, say Trump’s credit claims complicate picture

Operation Sindoor Anniversary: A Washington Post editorial warns that both sides may now believe they can fight a limited conventional war without triggering a nuclear exchange, a conclusion it says could turn out to be dangerously wrong.

New Delhi: It has been a year since India carried out Operation Sindoor, striking nine terror targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. What followed was a four-day military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. During this period, India carried out precision strikes on 11 Pakistani airbases, while Pakistan launched around 1,000 drones and missiles targeting India. These were intercepted by the country’s multi-layered air defence system.

On the first anniversary of the military actions, an editorial in The Washington Post has cautioned that the international response may not fully account for the seriousness of what happened last year.

The newspaper wrote, “You know the world scene is chaotic when we are approaching the first anniversary of a shooting war between two hostile nuclear powers, and very few Americans remember it.”

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It added that another crisis between India and Pakistan is likely, saying that “it may not be a question of whether another crisis will occur, but when”.

The editorial described the May 2025 confrontation as a “non-contact” form of warfare. It pointed out that the conflict involved missiles, drones and air power, without direct ground engagement. This approach, it said, could influence how both countries plan for future confrontations.

Warning over future conflict

The Washington Post warned that both India and Pakistan may now believe they can engage in a limited conventional war without crossing the nuclear threshold. It stated that such an assumption could prove risky.

The editorial also touched upon the diplomatic environment, especially during the tenure of Donald Trump. It said the US president has repeatedly claimed credit for helping bring about a ceasefire, a claim that has not gone down well in India.

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“A strong sense of independence and sovereignty is extraordinarily important in Indian political culture,” the editorial said.

It further warned that Trump’s repeated assertions, along with recent strains in US-India ties, could affect Washington’s ability to mediate in any future crisis between the two countries.

Water could become next flashpoint

Another area of concern highlighted in US assessments is the Indus Waters Treaty. A report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) pointed to this agreement as a potential source of tension.

The CRS said, “The Indian government responded by ‘suspending’ the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. Islamabad considers water an ‘extremely important national interest’ and has warned that any attempt to stop its flow would be seen as an ‘act of war’.”

Given that nearly 80 percent of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on the Indus basin, analysts believe water-related tensions could develop along with military friction.

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At the same time, many US experts have not addressed Pakistan’s long-standing support for cross-border terrorism, which continues to be a major concern for India.

A recent report by the Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research (CSCR) also examined environmental risks, arguing that the effects of such conflicts extend far beyond the battlefield.

Both sides preparing for next round

Writing in Foreign Affairs, US strategist Elizabeth Threlkeld said both India and Pakistan are studying the last conflict. She wrote, “India and Pakistan are using the last conflict to identify the weaknesses that need to be addressed and to build on the advantages they can use if fighting breaks out again.”

She added that Washington may find it difficult to respond effectively in the next crisis, especially given present tensions with New Delhi. “Washington may struggle to help de-escalate in a fast-moving and unfamiliar crisis,” she warned.