Russia Puts The Ball In India’s Court Ahead Of Putin’s Visit – What Will New Delhi Decide?

Russia has told India it is willing to take the partnership far beyond past limits, but how far it goes will depend on what New Delhi chooses.

Putin’s India Visit: A day before President Vladimir Putin lands in New Delhi, Russia has done something that has caught every strategist’s eye. By publicly outlining how far it is willing to strengthen ties, Moscow has effectively placed the next move with India, saying that it is ready to take the relationship to a much higher level if India wants it.

The message came from Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov during an online press briefing organised by the Russian agency Sputnik on Tuesday (December 2). In his usual measured tone, he said Moscow’s partnership with China has grown well beyond traditional limits, and Moscow sees India in a similar way. He said the depth of this relationship will ultimately depend on how far India wants to take it.

“China is our special strategic partner. We have very high-level cooperation with China, as we do with India. We are ready to expand cooperation beyond limits with China. Our approach with India is the same. As far as India is ready to go, we are prepared to go that far. If India expands cooperation, we are fully ready for it,” Peskov said.

He also admitted that India is under pressure because of its ties with Russia, stressing the need for both countries to protect their trade and keep the relationship insulated from outside interference.

“We understand that India is under pressure. That is why we must be very careful while advancing our ties. Our relations must remain free from the influence of any third country. We must safeguard our ties and the trade that benefits both sides,” he said.

Putin’s Message Before The Visit

Earlier on Tuesday, President Putin had also spoken about his desire to raise ties with both India and China to a “new height”.

For many watchers, the coordination of these statements was telling. Geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova believes Russia’s latest message to India is part of a careful balancing act. According to her, Moscow is trying to offset its growing dependence on Beijing by holding out a larger strategic partnership to New Delhi.

“Russia has just signalled a ‘no-limits’ strategic partnership to India. ‘We have no limits to our cooperation with China. But we have the same stand with India. Russia is ready to go as far as India is ready,’” she wrote on X, quoting Peskov.

She said, “This is a remarkable move: Moscow is openly trying to balance its dependence on China by elevating India to equal strategic status. It reflects Russia’s search for room to manoeuvre under sanctions, India’s centrality in the emerging new Cold War and the DragonBear’s attempt to keep New Delhi strategically close even as US-India ties deepen.”

“If India accepts even part of this offer,” she posted, “the geopolitical geometry of Asia such as Ukraine war diplomacy, BRICS+, energy flows and the Indo-Pacific balance will shift again”.

To put it plainly, Moscow wants India to enter a China-like depth of partnership, but only if India can withstand pressure from the West. And Moscow also wants reassurance that New Delhi will not limit trade because of American tariffs. For India, neither demand is easy.

What Does India Want?

At the Jindal School of International Affairs, Dean and author Sreeram Chaulia believes Russia may want India to make the next move, but Moscow should not expect a dramatic change.

“Russia and China have a partnership and that is clearly anti-American. India does not want to be part of that camp. China and Russia see the United States as a rival, but India does not. India needs the United States for its development. It cannot abandon Washington for Moscow, nor can it drop Russia for the United States,” he told BBC.

Chaulia explained that Beijing and Moscow have moved into a “no-limits” relationship because they need each other. India, on the other hand, needs all three (Russia, China and the United States) for different reasons.

“India’s relationship with Russia is mainly about energy and defence. With the United States, the relationship is multi-dimensional. In 2024, India-US bilateral trade was recorded at $129 billion, with a surplus of $45 billion in India’s favour. Why would India join an anti-American bloc? India needs US technology,” he said.

Peskov had stated that India-Russia trade presently stands at $63 billion, and Moscow hopes this will touch $100 billion by 2030. Before the Ukraine war began in 2021, it was just $13 billion. The surge has come almost entirely from discounted Russian oil.

The Trade Imbalance

Despite the numbers, the trade is heavily one-sided. In 2024-25, India exported only $4.88 billion worth of goods to Russia, while imports touched $63.84 billion.

Bloomberg reported that until October 15, Indian refiners were getting Russian crude at a discount of $2-2.5 per barrel compared to global benchmarks. But in 2023, this discount was over $23. With the margin narrowing, the savings for India have dropped significantly.

According to ratings agency Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India (ICRA), India saved only about $3.8 billion on Russian crude in the last financial year, down from the massive gains of the early-war period.

Meanwhile, the United States remains India’s biggest export destination, with Indian exports standing at $87 billion last year.

Russia wants India to achieve three things: decide whether it wants a “beyond limits” partnership with Moscow, ensure no third country influences India-Russia ties and raise bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030.

But none of these are simple choices for New Delhi. In fact, ahead of Putin’s arrival, India’s oil imports from Russia have already fallen.

Ajay Srivastava, head of the Delhi-based think tank GTRI, says purchases have been dropping over the past months. “Indian companies have already reduced crude imports from Russia. Official data shows Russia’s total exports to India fell 27.7% year-on-year in October 2025 from $6.7 billion last year to $4.8 billion. Since most of this is crude oil, the fall shows a drop of more than 30% in Russian oil buying,” he said.

India is also wary of being seen as part of an openly anti-American bloc, something many analysts believe the China-Russia partnership represents.

How Does Putin’s Visit Look To The West?

Since the World War II, India has stayed out of fixed power blocs, first through non-alignment and now through what it calls strategic autonomy. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has repeatedly said India will not compromise this principle.

Even so, strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney believes Putin’s trip is a message in the current global climate.

“In a world splitting into rival blocs, Putin’s Dec. 4-5 visit to New Delhi is not just another diplomatic stopover; it is a powerful geopolitical statement. The trip is poised to deliver consequential agreements, including new payment channels designed to bypass the SWIFT system and dilute the dominance of the U.S. dollar,” he wrote on X.

He said India has watched with growing alarm as Western policy, through unprecedented sanctions and the weaponisation of SWIFT and other financial tools, has driven Moscow into Beijing’s strategic embrace. But Putin’s visit, his first to India since the Ukraine war began, highlights that Russia still has options beyond China and will not allow itself to be reduced to a “junior partner” to Beijing.

“India, meanwhile, is sending a blunt message of its own. At a moment when the U.S. under Trump is treating it shabbily (for example, U.S. tariffs on India are now higher than on China), New Delhi will neither ostracise Russia nor fall in line with Western sanctions that damage its strategic autonomy. By hosting Putin, India is making clear that it rejects the Western-imposed binary of ‘with us or against us’ and will chart its own path,” he wrote.

China’s Role In The Triangle

Just before the war against Ukraine, Russia and China issued a joint statement describing their partnership as “no limits”. Analysts have debated whether that phrase still holds the same meaning today.

Yun Sun, director for the China Programme at the Stimson Center in Washington, told the Wall Street Journal that China’s support for Russia cannot be pinned solely to the Ukraine invasion.

“Xi Jinping strengthening ties with Russia cannot be linked entirely to the Ukraine war. This kind of warmth could have emerged at any time,” she said.

China’s foreign ministry had put it in writing as well: Beijing and Moscow are strategic partners and their ties are non-aligned, non-confrontational and not directed at any third country.