Pakistan-Afghanistan war threatens South Asia's stability; Indian's strategic concern | Explained

The Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict risks unraveling the fragile security architecture of South Asia, a region already grappling with nuclear tensions, terrorism, and economic interdependence.

Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have escalated to a direct military conflict. Pakistan defence minister Khawaja Asif has described it Pak military operation against Afghanistan as an 'open war.' This follows months of tit-for-tat clashes, comprising Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan cities like Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia, and Afghan retaliatory attacks on Pakistani border positions. 

The conflict originates from Pakistan's accusation that the Taliban government in Kabul harbours militants from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), who have carried out deadly attacks in Pakistan in recent years. 

However, Kabul strongly denies this allegation, farming Pakistani strikes as violations of its sovereignty. 

Causalities are mounting, with Pakistan claiming over 100 Taliban fighters killed and Afghanistan reporting dozens of Pakistani soldiers dead and captured, along with seizure of border posts.  

Threats to South Asia's stability

The conflict risks unraveling the fragile security architecture of South Asia, a region already grappling with nuclear tensions, terrorism, and economic interdependence.

Security spillover and terrorism: This conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan could empower militant groups like the TTP and Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), leading to cross-border attacks and regional extremism. Central Asian states for instance, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan fear militant infiltration and refugee flows, potentially destabilising their borders. In addition, Islamabad's nuclear arsenal also increase the risk of potential war. 

Economic and humanitarian disruptions: Border closures, like the recent shutdown of the Torkham crossing, disrupt trade routes vital for landlocked Afghanistan and Pakistan's economy. This could exacerbate Afghanistan's humanitarian crisis, triggering refugee waves into Pakistan (which already hosts millions) and straining resources across South Asia. Infrastructure projects, comprising energy pipelines and trade corridors, face delays and disruptions. 

Impact on regional powers and alliances: 

India: Any major Pakistan-Afghanistan war could divert Pakistani military focus westward, but refugee flows, militants infiltration, or economic disruptions would impact India badly. It will also complicate India's outreach to the Taliban. 

China: Beijing faces direct threats to its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects worth billions of dollars, Chinese personnel, and Belt and Road ambitions. China has previously faced the heat of these kind of attacks. Border instability risks attacks on infrastructure and could encourage separatists like the Balochistan Liberation Army or East Turkestan Islamic Movement.
 
Central Asian states: The conflicts indirectly impact Central Asian countries (such as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan) by heightening risks of spillover jihadist activity.  

India's strategic concerns

New Delhi is closely monitoring the situation in its neighbour. India worries of the fact that the instability from Pakistan-Afghanistan conflicts could exacerbate terrorism in the region, potentially spilling over into Indian-administered Kashmir. Groups like the TTP, ideologically linked to the Afghan Taliban, have ties to other militants that Pakistan has historically used against India. Escalating violence might embolden anti-India elements, increasing cross-border infiltration or attacks, as seen in past crises.
 
India's condemnation of Pakistan's airstrikes as an "attempt to externalise its internal failures" reflects fears that such actions destabilize the region further, indirectly threatening Indian security. 

India-Taliban ties and Pakistani Paranoia: Amid these tensions, New Delhi has deepened its engagement with the Taliban regime, including reopening its embassy in Kabul, providing humanitarian aid after a 2025 earthquake, and hosting a senior Taliban official in October 2025.

Pakistan perceives this as India's outreach to the Taliban leadership, making Kabul less inclined to crack down on TTP, which Pakistan blames for over 699 attacks in 2025 alone.

For India, this partnership is a strategic counter to Pakistan's influence, but it risks provoking Islamabad, which views it as encirclement. Experts suggest that Pakistan's military actions might inadvertently push the Taliban closer to India, creating a shared adversary dynamic.