As US troops move in, why Khamenei says the next war on Iran won’t stay contained

As Washington builds up its military presence in the Middle East, Iran’s supreme leader says any attack on Tehran will unleash a region-wide war.

Tehran: As the United States moves more military assets into the Middle East, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on Sunday that an attack against his country would trigger a regional war.

“They should know that if they start a war this time, it will be a regional war,” the 86-year-old leader said while addressing a large gathering in central Tehran.

Khamenei was speaking at an event marking the anniversary of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s return to Iran from exile in France in 1979. The moment set off the Islamic Revolution and led to the downfall of US-backed monarch Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi.

Khamenei, who has been ruling Iran with ultimate authority for the past 37 years, accused Washington of targeting the country’s natural wealth. He said the United States aims to “devour” Iran along with its vast oil and natural gas reserves.

He also revisited the wave of antigovernment protests that recently swept across the country, describing the unrest as a coordinated attempt to destabilise the state.

Referring to attacks on government buildings and religious sites, Khamenei said the violence during the protests resembled an attempted coup. He described the unrest a new “sedition”. He has used term previously as well to describe major protest agitations, including the 2009 Green Movement.

“The recent sedition was similar to a coup. Of course, the coup was suppressed. Their goal was to destroy sensitive and effective centres involved in running the country. And for this reason, they attacked the police, government centres, (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC) facilities, banks and mosques and burned copies of the Holy Quran,” he alleged.

Protests, deaths and competing narratives

The protests began on December 28, after shopkeepers in Tehran’s main market demonstrated over the country’s worsening economy. The crisis has been blamed on alleged poor management, corruption, the collapse of Iran’s currency and the impact of US-led sanctions.

The demonstrations spread across the country and grew into wider protests over alleged curbs on personal and social freedoms, ongoing water and energy shortages and heavy air pollution in major cities.

International organisations, including the United Nations, along with human rights groups and Iran’s foreign-based opposition, say the protests were met with deadly force. They allege that thousands were killed by security forces during the unrest.

A UN special rapporteur has said the death toll could exceed 20,000 as information continues to emerge following weeks of internet shutdowns. US-based activists claim 6,713 people were killed and say they are examining thousands of additional cases. Other estimates suggest even higher numbers.

Iranian authorities reject those claims, insisting that armed “terrorists” backed by the United States and Israel carried out the killings. State media reported that 3,117 people died, including 2,427 civilians and the rest members of the security forces.

President Masoud Pezeshkian said this week that the government would soon publish the names and details of everyone killed during the unrest, though no date was given. Authorities also sent a text message to citizens, saying the disclosure would counter what they described as “fake claims and figures”.

Symbolic gestures and hardline messaging

As tensions simmer inside the country, the government sent another text message on Sunday announcing that women would soon be allowed to ride motorcycles, a move seen as an attempt to ease social pressure.

Women in Iran have long been barred from riding motorcycles, while mandatory dress codes and penalties for violations are in place.

Inside Parliament, scenes familiar to many Iranians played out once again as hardline lawmakers appeared in IRGC uniforms and chanted “Death to America”, raising clenched fists.

The display followed the European Union’s recent decision to designate the IRGC as a “terrorist” organisation. Tehran responded by blacklisting the EU’s armed forces.

Formed in the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, the IRGC has grown into a dominant military force with influence across Iran’s economy.

“Such moves (by the EU) will not only fail to help with regional peace and security but will also make the path of constructive engagement and coordination harder,” the IRGC said in a statement on Sunday.

Shows of strength and anniversary rallies

Across Iran, officials have organised events to mark the revolution’s anniversary and reinforce the state’s message of defiance.

In a visible show of strength, troops from the IRGC and the regular army joined by the police and other security forces marched through the streets of Tehran. Soldiers on motorcycles led a parade from the Mehrabad Airport to Behesht-e Zahra cemetery, the site where Khomeini delivered his first speech after returning to Iran in 1979.

Additional images showed soldiers at Khomeini’s mausoleum, where they were described as having “renewed their covenant with the goals and ideals of the revolution”.

Hamidreza Hajibabaei, head of the committee organising the 10-day anniversary events, said large rallies would be held across the country on February 11 to “spell the end of the presence of global arrogance”.

In his address, Khamenei highlighted the importance of state-backed demonstrations, claiming that millions attended a pro-government rally on January 12, while only “mere thousands” participated in the recent protests.

State television and its affiliated channels have continued to broadcast programmes criticising last month’s unrest. One show on Ofogh, an IRGC-linked channel, triggered anger online after it appeared to mock protesters, prompting authorities to remove the channel’s director.