West Bengal elections 2026: How 2021 exit polls got it wrong and why it still looms large

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has claimed it is on track to challenge Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s leadership, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah claiming that the party could cross 110 out of the 152 seats that went to polls in the first phase and move towards a majority in the state assembly.

New Delhi: West Bengal has moved towards the final stretch of its assembly election process, with the second phase of voting scheduled to begin from 7 am today (April 29). Once polling ends at 6 pm, attention will turn to exit polls, which often give an early sense of where things may be headed, even though they do not always match the final results.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has said that it is in a strong position in the state. Shah has stated during campaigning that the party could secure over 110 seats from the first phase and eventually form a government in West Bengal.

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress (TMC), however, have pushed back on these claims. She said that early signs from the ground suggest that her party continues to hold a strong lead across the state.

Voter turnout in the first phase has also drawn attention. The high participation has raised questions about whether pre-election surveys and projections are capturing voter sentiment accurately this time.

Campaigning for the second phase ended on April 27, bringing the close of an important stage in the election process. Assembly elections in Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry have already concluded earlier in the month. Counting of votes across all five states will take place on May 4.

As per Election Commission rules, media organisations are not allowed to publish or broadcast exit poll data until all voting is completed. These polls are based on surveys of voters conducted after they leave polling stations and are meant to give an early idea of possible outcomes before counting begins.

What exit polls showed in 2021

Looking back at the 2021 West Bengal election gives a clear example of how exit polls can differ from final results. Most exit polls at the time had predicted a close fight between the TMC and the BJP.

Combined projections from various agencies suggested that the TMC could win around 156 seats out of 292, while the BJP was expected to secure around 121 seats. This created expectations of a tightly contested result.

However, the final outcome turned out very different. The TMC went on to win 215 seats, securing a comfortable majority. The BJP finished with 77 seats and became the main Opposition in the state for the first time.

The difference between exit poll predictions and actual results in 2021 is still remembered in political circles. It has also led to more caution when interpreting projections before results are officially announced.

Exit polls in 2026

Exit poll numbers for this year’s election in the state will be released after voting ends and are expected to be followed by both political parties and people.

As the state waits for voting to conclude, both alliances are preparing for the final phase, while exit polls once again take centre stage as the first preview of what voters may have decided.