How does IMD predict rain? Inside India's AI-powered weather forecasting technology

Ever wondered how the IMD knows rain is coming days in advance? From tracking Mediterranean storms to using the 'Arunika' supercomputer and AI, discover the cutting-edge science and satellite technology behind India’s 2026 weather forecasts.

While the month of February 2026 is marked by intermittent showers, fog, and varying weather, a question that crops up in the minds of the public is, "How does the India Meteorological Department know when the weather will change?" From following storms that begin in the Mediterranean to the usage of AI-driven supercomputing technology, here is an inside look at the fascinating science behind India's weather forecasting:

The 'western disturbance': The architect of february rain

A significant amount of rain that India receives during the month of February is brought by Western Disturbances (WD). They are extratropical disturbances that start over the Mediterranean Sea and travel thousands of kilometers over Afghanistan and Pakistan to reach India.

These moisture-bearing winds, when they strike the Himalayas, result in the ascent of the air, subsequent lowering of temperature, and the resultant formation of clouds. In February 2026, the IMD successfully tracked the WDs reaching the region (Feb 1-3, 5-6, 9-11). These systems bring the much-needed precipitation in the mountains and rain in Delhi-NCR and Punjab. These systems, however, bring the residents the "late winter blues."

The technology: How IMD 'sees' the future

The IMD used a "multi-layered" approach for monitoring the atmosphere by applying space technology coupled with ground-level physics.

1. Doppler Weather Radars (The Local Eye)

The network of X-band and S-band Doppler Radars at IMD serves like a real-time scanner. These can detect rainfall, wind speed, and hailstorms up to 200 km. This is how "Nowcasting" is done: predicting sudden change in weather in the next 1 to 3 hours with high precision.

2. Satellite imagery (The eye in the sky)

For instance, scientists can view the movement of clouds, sea surface temperature, and humidity from space by the ISRO satellite series INSAT. Satellites can identify the beginning of the Western Disturbance as it starts its travel towards the Indian subcontinent.

3. NWP models

However, the strongest weapon in the arsenal of the IMD has been Numerical Weather Prediction. A large amount of data is being fed into a computer named 'Arunika,' which solves complex equations of physics.

GFS (Global Forecast System): Global perspective, updated four times a day.

WRF - Weather Research and Forecasting: Provides high-resolution local details down to a radius of 3 km.

AI and machine learning: Forecasts have been 40-50% more accurate due to the integration of AI since 2026.

From data to your screen: The final step

Data is being fed every minute from thousands of Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), ocean buoys, and aircraft. This information is "assimilated" into the NWP models every 6 to 12 hours. This information is then analysed by meteorologists, who use the outputs to disseminate color-coded alerts such as yellow, orange, and red to the public via the Mausam App, social media, and news channels. This smooth chain of technology always has the country ready for whatever the weather may bring, whether it be the farmer in Punjab or the traffic in Delhi.

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