Box Office: ‘Wicked’ Heads for Dazzling $100 Million Debut, ‘Gladiator II’ Aims for Muscular $65 Million

Is “Glicked” the new “Barbenheimer”?

Whether “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” inspires an unorthodox double feature à la last summer’s simultaneous blockbusters “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” remains a question. Either way, there’s a box office battle brewing between Universal’s pink-and-green musical and Paramount’s bloody sword-and-sandal epic, both of which open on Friday.

“Wicked,” director Jon M. Chu’s big-screen take on the beloved Broadway show, is expected to lead with a huge $100 million to $110 million from 3,880 North American theaters over the weekend. The PG-rated film landed on tracking with projections of $80 million to $85 million, but estimates have increased in subsequent weeks. Given the ubiquity of the stage show, the omnipresence of the Oz-themed marketing campaign and enough brand partnerships (more than 400 in total) to fill Emerald City, rival studio executives and independent tracking services believe that ticket sales could fly to $130 million in its first weekend of release. Even a start on the lower end of projections would rank as the best debut for a Broadway adaptation, a record that currently belongs to 2014’s “Into the Woods” ($31 million).

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Though “Wicked” will loom large at the domestic box office, “Gladiator II,” Ridley Scott’s quarter-century-in-the-making sequel, should open solidly in second place. The R-rated follow to 2000’s “Gladiator” is aiming to collect $65 million from 3,500 cinemas over the weekend. It’s pacing above other post-pandemic big-budget tentpoles aimed at older males, such as James Bond installment “No Time to Die” ($55 million debut in 2021) and “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” ($60.3 million in 2023).

“Gladiator II” already entered the international box office arena with $87 million from 63 markets, standing as the biggest R-rated opening weekend overseas for Paramount Pictures.

The second “Gladiator” cost more than $250 million to produce and roughly $100 million to promote, so the action epic needs to resonate at the global box office to be deemed a success. Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal and Denzel Washington star in the tentpole, which picks up two decades after the original as Lucius (Mescal), the nephew of Joaquin Phoenix’s emperor Commodus, enters the Colosseum and seeks to return the glory of Rome to its people. Reviews have been mostly positive, though, of course, “Gladiator II” has big sandals to fill as the successor to an Oscar best picture winner. The original also triumphed commercially as one of the highest grossing movies of 2000 with $465 million globally. Variety’s Owen Gleiberman called the second installment a “serviceable but far from great sequel.”

“Wicked,” too, has stratospheric stakes. Universal has been developing the movie for over a decade and cycled through several directors before Chu (“Crazy Rich Asians,” “In the Heights”) stepped behind the camera. Not only does the song-and-dance film carry a $150 million budget, but the second half of the two-part story (which cost an additional $150 million) is arriving on the big screen in 2025. Universal needs the first film needs to strike a chord with moviegoers so they show up for “Wicked: Part Two” next Thanksgiving. “Wicked” also has to overcome the reality that stage musicals haven’t translated to box office riches in over a decade. The last ones to really connect were 2012’s “Les Miserables” ($442 million globally) and 2014’s “Into the Woods” ($212 million globally against a $50 million budget). More recent attempts like Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” remake, Chu’s “In the Heights,” “Dear Evan Hansen,” “Cats” and “The Color Purple” all sputtered in cinemas despite being based on popular productions.

In any case, “Wicked” looks to end that ignominious run. Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo star in the cinematic version of the long-running Broadway smash about everything that happens before Dorothy lands in Oz. It serves as a prequel and sequel to “The Wizard of Oz,” charting the unlikely friendship of Erivo’s green-skinned Elphaba (later known as the Wicked Witch of the West) and Grande’s perky, pink Glinda (eventually dubbed Glinda the Good). Stephen Schwartz and Winnie Holzman, who wrote the music and lyrics to the Broadway show, adapted the screenplay.

“Wicked” and “Gladiator” look to fuel a massive Thanksgiving period at the box office, which will continue with another blockbuster-hopeful, Disney’s “Moana 2,” on Nov. 27. As Glinda sings in the fizzy musical: “Thank goodness!”