Superpowers eye own interests in India-Pakistan conflict

The world didn't need another dangerous flashpoint that risks plunging a region, one where the US and China maintain key strategic interests, into all-out war.

However, in the past two weeks, Kashmir has become just that.

The longstanding dispute over the territory partitioned between Pakistan and India sharply reignited, pushing the two nuclear-armed south Asian neighbours to an angry standoff and leaving little room for de-escalation.

India, which has a Hindu majority and Pakistan, which is mostly Muslim, have fought several conflicts since gaining independence from Britain in 1947, including three over the territory of Kashmir.

Charged and vengeful rhetoric from New Delhi and Islamabad indicates that this time, neither side is prepared to back down.

Two days after gunmen opened fire on mainly Hindu tourists in a scenic Kashmir hill station on 22 April left 26 people dead, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to "punish every terrorist and their backers".

"We will pursue them to the ends of the earth," he said.

India accuses Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, which Pakistan denies.

Two weeks later, India’s response came in the form of "Operation Sindoor" – a series of airstrikes on multiple sites in Pakistan and on Pakistan’s side of the Kashmir border, killing and injuring dozens.

The temporary pleasure of India will be "replaced by enduring grief," Pakistan’s army warned in the hours after the attack.

And then, late on Wednesday, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said: "We make this pledge, that we will avenge each drop of the blood of these martyrs."

At the time of writing, fighting is ongoing.

The last time tensions mounted so dramatically was after the bombing of a bus full of Indian paramilitaries in Kashmir in 2019.

For some time, Pakistan had decried India’s hardline policies in the region, including the imposition of direct rule from New Delhi and a crackdown on dissent, which bred resentment among Muslims in the region.

Tit-for-tat shelling across the Line of Control that separates Indian-administered Kashmir from Pakistan-administered Kashmir continued until a ceasefire in 2021.

At that time, de-escalation was fostered by the then-leaders of the two countries and a concerted effort on the part of the United States and others to force calm.

But things are different now.

Today, both countries may be more risk-prone, said Manjari Chatterjee Miller, senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, but for opposite reasons.

"India because it's emboldened, Pakistan because its opportunity window may be closing," she said.

The Indian government sees the global context as favourable for India - something the country’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar often refers to as "a geopolitical sweet spot".

"India has a strategic partnership with the United States, it is being courted by the EU, UK and Australia for access to its markets, it has a demographic boom, it sees itself as a leader of global south nations, and its economy is projected to grow substantially," Ms Miller told RTÉ News.

"Pakistan by contrast, is in a weaker position, its relationship with the United States has worsened and it is in desperate need of development," she said, adding "these factors actually increase the risks of escalation".

War with India could set back Pakistan's economic prospects and hand a lasting strategic advantage to its rival.

However, India’s sweet spot also means it has a lot to lose from a messy war.

India is focused on its economic development with ambitions to become the world's third-largest economy by 2030, if not earlier, according to Pradeep Taneja, senior lecturer in Asian politics at the University of Melbourne, Australia.

Also, India’s main regional rival is not Pakistan, but China.

"In order to compete with China as a rising power, India needs to close the gap with China economically," Mr Taneja told RTÉ News.

"It would, therefore, not wish to derail its economic growth trajectory by entering into a full-scale war with Pakistan," he said.

Superpower interests

India’s strategic rivalry with China has deepened in recent years - the two countries have skirmished over their own Himalayan border dispute - while its relations with the United States have warmed.

The United States, conversely, began cooling on Pakistan some time ago.

"Many in the United States perceive its defeat in Afghanistan to be in no small part due to Pakistan which aided and supported the Taliban," said Manjari Chatterjee Miller.

A historic US-India defence partnership, hammered out during the Obama administration, was beefed up during President Donald Trump’s first term.

It included an agreement to give India access to the advanced communication technology used in US military equipment.

Another deal, signed in 2020, provided India with US defence technology to improve the accuracy of Indian drones and cruise missiles.

Speaking at a press conference in New Delhi, the then US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper said the agreement was aimed at keeping at the Indo-Pacific region free and open, "particularly in light of increasing aggression and destabilising activities by China".

The United States certainly views India as a regional bulwark against China.

But the same could be said for how China sees Pakistan.

"China is extremely wary of the United States-India relationship which leads it to view events in the subcontinent through the lens of its own great power politics with the United States," Ms Miller said.

Chinese officials refer to the relationship between Beijing and Islamabad as one of "ironclad brothers".

Pakistan was central to President Xi Jinping’s giant global infrastructure development push, known as the Belt and Road Initiative, pouring billions into the country to build high-speed rail, road, energy and seaport projects, as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

China also provides diplomatic cover and support to Pakistan at the United Nations Security Council, said Pradeep Taneja.

And while France, Russia, the US and Israel sell most of the arms to India, China is the chief supplier of military hardware to Pakistan.

This week, Pakistan claimed to have used Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets to down India's French-made Rafale warplanes in what’s thought to be the first time modern Chinese weaponry has been field-tested against Western-made equipment.

India did not comment on the claim but the news sent Chinese defence stocks soaring.

When asked about the involvement of Chinese jets, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was "not familiar" with the matter.

As tensions build, both the United States and China are calling for calm.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke on the phone with government officials from both countries, emphasising "the need for immediate de-escalation," according to his spokesperson.

Beijing urged India and Pakistan to act "in the larger interest of peace".

US Vice President JD Vance told Fox News this week that the conflict was "fundamentally none of our business".

But in this long-running battle between nuclear neighbours, it’s clear the world’s great powers have already picked their side.