Galway West: As the dust settles, eyes on future battles

The results of the count in Galway West will form part of the wider political analysis, after the dust settles on the proceedings here.

Independent Ireland's performance is the standout one.

Noel Thomas more than doubled his share of the vote, taking 20.8% of number ones across the constituency.

Fine Gael had a good day at the office too, securing 20.1% of first preferences, a slight increase on its showing here in 2024, and going on to take the seat.

In contrast, Fianna Fáil's share of the vote halved on its last outing here, with Cillian Keane securing 8.7%.

Sinn Féin's vote collapsed, leaving the party trailing both Labour and the Social Democrats in Galway West.

The count data also throws up questions about a nascent left alliance, here and elsewhere.

In Galway West, six left-leaning candidates - from Sinn Féin, Labour, Social Democrats, People Before Profit, the Green Party, along with independent Sheila Garrity - formed a loose grouping at the start of the campaign.

They asked voters to 'vote left, transfer left', in an effort to galvanise support for one of their number, to hold the seat vacated by Catherine Connolly last autumn.

That didn't work out.

In fact, the collective share of the vote achieved by that grouping of candidates fell by almost five percentage points, compared to the 2024 general election.

Were it not for the significant strides made by Labour's Helen Ogbu, who took 11.4% and was third placed throughout the count, that drop would have been even starker.

At the count centre in Salthill on Saturday, both Micheál Martin and Mary Lou McDonald leaned on the line that "bye-elections are a different beast" or they they "have their own dynamic", to explain away their misfortunes in Dublin Central and Galway West respectively.

Both leaders will mull over the results and see what can be extrapolated from them.

Of the two parties, Sinn Féin seemed more shaken by what unfolded in Galway West.

It quickly folded up its tent in the count centre when the final tally was completed, leaving its allocated space at the back of the hall to be used as a spill-over area for Fine Gael, as the day progressed.

Fianna Fáil took a more upbeat outlook, with the Taoiseach telling reporters that Cillian Keane had laid foundations for another tilt at a Dáil seat in due course, as he downplayed the dip in support for the party in the constituency.

There was no disguising Fine Gael's delight at how the results played out.

Saturday started with an uncertain vibe among its foot soldiers, who were cautious about their man's chances.

But as votes tumbled from boxes and the ticks on tally sheets began to increase in volume, the mood lifted.

By mid-afternoon tally people were firmly focused on working to confirm the likelihood of transfers seeing Seán Kyne over the line.

His triumph was described by his campaign manager, Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke, as a confirmation that voters wanted stability and certainty.

In a campaign dominated by the cost of living and housing, the electorate has opted to add to the Government's ranks.

It's a mid-term fillip for Fine Gael and has them back holding two seats in a constituency where they've historically struggled to do just that.

And despite securing a second 'also-ran' tag in as many Dáil contests, Noel Thomas must surely be in pole position to make it third time lucky in a general election context.

Were he to replicate his latest showing in a future five-seat contest, he would be home and hosed.

Labour's fortunes, along with those of the Social Democrats, are on an upward trajectory here.

The former will also be hoping that Cllr Ogbu can add to her first preference haul and retake a seat for the party in the next general election.

The Social Democrats will have eyes on the same prize.

Galway West in its current iteration might not exist by the time we go to the polls again.

A growth in population, and the deliberations of the next Constituency Commission, may alter the geographical boundaries by the time the next general election is expected.

At the end of another count last evening, the final word was with Returning Officer Marian Chambers Higgins.

She and her Deputy, Derry Buckley, are both soon retiring, having overseen countless elections and referendums in the area over the years.

Their contribution to the democratic process is the epitome of civic mindedness and public service.

"I suppose it is the end of a little era," Ms Chambers Higgins told count staff, before paying tribute to her colleagues, past and present, for the support and comradeship she had received from them over the years.

Fitting comments at the end of another carnival of democracy in the west.

And fitting praise for the hundreds of staff who pore over ballots, checking, sorting, stacking and stamping - all to ensure individual voices on polling day achieve their collective volume, at the end of a count.

Full details of the Galway West bye-election here