Media projections predict Liberals to win Canada election

Canada's ruling Liberal Party has retained power in the election but it is too soon to say whether they will form a majority government, CTV News and CBC predicted.

Prime Minister Mark Carney had asked for a strong mandate to help him handle US President Donald Trump's tariffs and annexation threat, but CTV and CBC said the Liberals had not yet secured the 172 electoral districts, known as seats, they needed for a majority.

The result might not be known for some time and could depend on the westernmost province of British Columbia, where polls closed last.

The Liberals were leading or elected in 133 electoral districts, which are also called seats, followed by the Conservatives with 93.

Mr Carney had promised a tough approach with the US over its tariffs and said Canada would need to spend billions to reduce its reliance on the country.

But the right-of-center Conservatives, who called for change after more than nine years of Liberal rule, showed unexpected strength.

The House has 343 seats and if Mr Carney only captures a minority, he will have to negotiate with other parties to stay in power.

Minority governments in Canada rarely last longer than two-and-a-half years.

The result capped a notable comeback for the Liberals, who had been 20 points behind in the polls in January before former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he was quitting and Mr Trump started threatening tariffs and annexation.

The last party to win four consecutive elections in Canada was the Liberals, in 2004.

The result was a huge defeat for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who focused his campaign on domestic issues and the need to fix a country the Liberals had "broken".

The Liberal Party has been trailing the Conservatives until Mr Trump's attacks on Canada sparked a wave of patriotism and a sudden reversal in poll forecasts.

Mr Trump inserted himself into the race early in the day with a social media post saying Canada would face "ZERO TARIFFS" if it "becomes the cherished 51st state".

Mr Poilievre, criticised during the campaign for his at times muted criticisms of Mr Trump, hit back firmly.

"President Trump, stay out of our election," he posted on X.

"Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state," he added.

Mr Carney also weighed in, saying on X: "This is Canada and we decide what happens here."

The 60-year-old has never held elected office and only replaced Mr Trudeau as prime minister last month.

A hockey player in his youth, Mr Carney had a career as an investment banker before serving as the central bank governor in both Canada and Britain.

"Today, we leave everything on this ice," he said on social media before voting near his Ottawa home.

Mr Carney anchored his campaign on an anti-Trump message and argued that his global financial experience has prepared him to guide Canada through a trade war.

The United States, he repeatedly said, was "trying to break us, so they can own us".

Mr Poilievre, a 45-year-old career politician, tried to keep the focus on domestic concerns that made Mr Trudeau deeply unpopular toward the end of his decade in power.

The Tory leader argued Mr Carney would continue "the lost Liberal decade" and that only the Conservatives will act against soaring costs, housing shortages and other non-Trump issues that Canadians rank as priorities.

With warm spring weather, Canadians lined up outside schools, community centers and other venues in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto to cast ballots.

Montreal resident Hamza Fahri, who planned to vote after work, described the election as "unique".

"I wanted to vote for change in Canada. I wanted the Liberals to go, but in the end, I'll vote for Carney because he is a strong, serious man and that's what the country needs to face Trump," the 28-year-old engineer told AFP.

In Canada's largest city Toronto, Conservative supporter Chad McCann said the Liberals "hadn't really done much for us" over their decade in power.

"I think for a strong change, there is no better time than today," the 37-year-old told AFP.

For first-time voter Hilary Recker, getting to the polls was a priority.

"I'm just excited to vote," the 19-year-old Toronto resident said.

"Hopefully it doesn't end up like the (United) States and I don't get disappointed," she added.

On 6 January, the day Mr Trudeau announced he would resign, the Conservatives led the Liberals by more than 20 points in most polls.

But Mr Carney replacing Mr Trudeau, combined with nationwide unease about Mr Trump, transformed the race.

The performance of two smaller parties - the left-wing New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Quebecois - could be decisive as strong showings by both parties in past votes have curbed Liberal seat tallies.

Nearly 29 million of Canada's 41 million people are eligible to vote in the massive G7 country.

A record 7.3 million people cast advanced ballots.

Canadians will elect 343 members of parliament, meaning 172 seats are needed for a majority.

The Liberals won a majority in 2015 but have governed with a minority since 2019.