Who is going to be haunted by the US midterms?

The numbers couldn't be clearer. Americans are eager to have their say on the future direction of the country.

As of last night, more than 48 million people had cast a ballot at early voting stations or by post.

The figures are significantly outpacing those recorded at the same point in the last midterm election. The sharpest increases are in states with fiercely competitive Senate races that could determine which party controls the chamber.

Just look at Texas. The Republican-leaning Lone Star state has dominated national and international headlines for its tight US Senate, House and governor races.

More than 6.3 million Texans voted during the first seven days of early voting.

That's compared with 4.2 million people at the same point four years ago.

Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas have also seen numbers jump by over 30% according to an AP analysis. In South Carolina, early voting is up an extraordinary 83%.

With so many races too close to call, President Donald Trump knows how crucial turnout is in these midterm elections. The results could have a significant impact on his power and ability to advance his agenda over the next two years.

That's why he has been campaigning furiously over the last month, appearing alongside the likes of rapper Nicki Minaj and boxers Mike Tyson and Jake Paul to try and energise voters. At the start of October, the White House laid out plans for the president to travel to at least 17 states ahead of Tuesday's vote.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the president had made 20 stops in states he handily won and six in battleground states since 9 September, according to ABC News tracking.

"Just get out and vote" was his message at one rally.

But will his efforts move the dial in any way, as Republican candidates find themselves haunted by concerns over affordability and the administration's immigration crackdown?

The non-partisan polling organisation, the Cook Political Report, yesterday shifted a dozen more House races towards Democrats.

It now forecasts more than 218 seats to "lean Democrat" or better, projecting a Democratic House majority of between 227 and 240 seats - potentially a blue tsunami.

The race for control of the Senate is a much closer contest. Seven key races remain within the margin of error, giving both parties a path to a majority in 2027.

Democrats need to keep the seats they already hold and gain another four (they would be safer with five as Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman's vote isn't a reliably blue one these days).

According to Cook Political Report analyst Jessica Taylor: "Given the dismal national political environment for Republicans - and the fact that Democrats have multiple scenarios to gain the four seats they need to flip the chamber (of the seven seats sitting in Toss Up, six are held by Republicans) - we see Democrats as the slight favourites."

The New York Times has reported that "a grim mood has set in around the White House, which has been rocked by turnover, tension among internal factions and anxiety over what happens should Republicans lose legislative control in Washington".

If Democrats take control of Congress, or even just the House, it is unlikely to be a moment of purely political retribution.

The party has said that it will investigate allegations of corruption and wrongdoing within the Trump administration, but that is unlikely to be its main focus.

Much of its focus instead will be directed towards attempts to address affordability, even if those efforts ultimately come to nothing in the face of a presidential veto.

There is talk of a shock-and-awe legislative push in the new year, in the hours after Democrats take control of the chamber, with promises to restore health care subsidies and Medicaid funding, alongside introducing federal regulation of AI and data centres.

Even though Senate Republicans and the president may block these efforts, it's a win-win for Democrats.

If legislation passes, it's a straightforward win for the party.

If it's vetoed, Democrats can point to the fact that they tried. That's a message they can carry into the 2028 presidential election.

However, if those tight races don't go the Democrats' way, they are the ones that could be haunted by a missed opportunity.

Having come so close, they could find themselves falling at the final hurdle, despite political conditions appearing to be in their favour.

For Republicans, one man who may be left spooked is Elon Musk, the world's richest man, who has poured close to half a billion dollars into backing the GOP during this election.

And if a blue wave or tsunami does materialise, the already grim mood in the White House is likely to darken considerably, leaving the Republican Party at a crossroads.

As it looks towards the 2028 election and the search for a presidential candidate, will it double down on Donald Trump's brand of politics or is this the moment to move in a different direction?

We'll find out after next Tuesday.