Trump tariffs cool Quebec's push for independence for now

When US President Donald Trump levied 50% tariffs on Canadian steel in June last year, a steel factory in Canada's mostly French-speaking province of Quebec lost about a third of its orders for bolts and fasteners in less than a week.

The factory owner, The Heico Companies, froze hiring, closed a plant in the region and laid off several dozen people, said David Jeannotte, an operations director, whose own brother lost his job. The cuts were part of 140 layoffs by the company, mainly in Quebec.

The factory's troubles reflect broader anxiety over the fallout from Mr Trump's trade war in Quebec, which is due to hold a provincial election by 5 October.

But while some previous economic slowdowns in the province prompted an increase in separatist sentiment, polls show that this time around, support for an independent Quebec is at its lowest level in decades, at about 30%.

"As long as Trump will be in his chair, I don't feel that we even need to talk about that," Mr Jeannotte said.

Others in the region are echoing Mr Jeannotte's concerns, saying the threat Mr Trump poses to Canada means the best way to preserve Quebec's unique French culture is to stay within Canada, at least for now.

Mr Trump's threats to make Canada the 51st state and the whiplash from his tariff policy have spurred an outpouring of Canadian patriotism in Quebec, a province that regularly threatens to break away and has had two previous referendums on the issue.

As the country's only majority French-speaking province, Quebec has a long-established separatist movement that argues independence from Canada is the best way to protect its distinct culture and language.

Quebec has never formally signed the Canadian Constitution and separatists argue French Canadians are often overlooked by the English-dominated majority.

Campaign of fear

The separatist Parti Quebecois currently holds a slim lead in provincial election polls and a win would mark the party’s return to power after a dozen years. But analysts say a vote for the party would be more about disappointment with the ruling party than an endorsement of the PQ’s independence platform.

While the PQ is committed to a third independence referendum if it wins, leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon vowed that won't happen while Mr Trump is president, a tacit recognition of falling support for independence.

Quebec narrowly voted to stay in Canada in a 1995 referendum, spurring a national reckoning that resulted in the federal government asking the Supreme Court to clarify the legal procedure for separation.

On Tuesday, Mr Plamondon said in a post on X that deciding Quebec’s political fate "must not be hijacked by the upheaval of American politics, the outbursts of an unpredictable president or by a campaign of fear."

The explicit acknowledgment of the risk Mr Trump poses to Quebec's independence movement aligns with a broader pattern in which the US president's policies and rhetoric, including his stance on Greenland, have undermined separatist causes elsewhere.

In both Scotland and Catalonia, efforts to break away from the UK and Spain have been complicated by uncertainty stemming from Mr Trump's tariff threats and criticism of NATO.

A delayed Quebec sovereignty vote would be one less headache for Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, who himself upended polls favouring the Conservatives to win a national election last year after promising to be a tough negotiator with Mr Trump.

Mr Carney faces another separatist movement in oil-rich Alberta, which has its own referendum scheduled for mid-October. While conservative Alberta’s burgeoning independence movement aligns with Mr Trump’s brand of conservatism, Quebecers have largely supported the rest of Canada in pressing back against the US president’s tariffs and threats of annexation.

"Postponing a referendum is unfortunately a choice we have to accept," said Stéphane Bédard, a former interim leader of the PQ. "Quebec is stronger than it’s ever been, but the external factor of Trump has created a lot of insecurity, so we have to be realistic."

Donald Trump is more disliked in Quebec, arguably the country's most progressive province, than anywhere else in Canada.

According to August data from the pollster Angus Reid, only 10% of Quebecers have a favourable view of the president, and even a deal to lower tariffs is unlikely to reverse public opinion.

"Trump represents everything that Quebec has fought against for the last 60 years in terms of creating a modern, progressive society," said Jonathan Kalles, former Quebec adviser to ex-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Mr Trump's conservative policies as well as his administration's comments that the province's French language requirements are a "trade irritant" are both unpopular.

The financial impact from his policies is also strongly felt in Quebec and economists note the province is among the worst hit by Trump's tariffs, given its concentration of industries like steel and aluminum.

A March report from the Bank of Montreal estimated Quebec's economy would grow about 1% this year, compared to more than 2% for Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Mr Jeannotte said that before Mr Trump levied tariffs on Canadian steel, about 90% of its products were destined for the US, with its bolts used in New York’s Empire State Building.

Mr Jeannotte said some staffers work without pay on some days and others have voluntarily reduced their hours.

At the negotiating table

Still, some Quebec separatists say independence remains critical, even now.

Marie-Anne Alepin, president of the separatist Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal, said Mr Carney's decision to eliminate a tax that helps finance Canadian programming would cut funding for Quebec's French-language productions, highlighting that as an example of why the province should become independent. Ottawa has pledged to replace the tax with government funding.

"Canada is not capable of defending Quebec's interests," Ms Alepin said. "(Quebec) has to be at the negotiating table and to do that, we have to be a country."

Vincent Rainville, a fourth-generation Quebec dairy farmer who owns more than 250 cows, disagreed, saying Mr Trump's policies have complicated efforts to strengthen Quebec's economy and that a national response is required. Nearly half of Canada’s dairy farms are in Quebec.

"It's not just Quebec, it's all of Canada and all our industries that have been affected," he said.

"If I supported an independent Quebec, I would not want to talk about that policy now."