South Korea court to decide impeached president's fate

The fate of South Korea's presidency hangs on the Constitutional Court today as it decides whether to uphold Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment over a disastrous martial law declaration or to return him to power.

Mr Yoon, 64, was suspended by politicians over his 3 December attempt to subvert civilian rule, which saw armed soldiers deployed to parliament. He was also arrested over a separate criminal trial on insurrection charges.

At least six of the Constitutional Court's eight justices must vote to remove Mr Yoon. Otherwise, he will be reinstated.

If removed, he would become the second South Korean leader to be impeached by the court after Park Geun-hye in 2017.

After weeks of tense hearings, judges spent more than a month deliberating the case, all while public unrest has swelled.

Mr Yoon, who defended his 3 December attempt to subvert civilian rule as necessary to root out "anti-state forces", still commands the backing of extreme supporters, who have staged protests for weeks in the run-up to the verdict.

The wait for his ruling had led to worsening political divisions in the country and the emergence of unverified conspiracy theories, some suggesting that the justices were locked in intense disagreements.

Police have been increasing security, and plan to deploy maximum capacity today to head off unrest.

Embassies - including the American, French, Russian and Chinese - have warned citizens to avoid mass gatherings in connection with today's verdict.

'Highly unlikely' to reinstate

South Korea has spent the four months since Mr Yoon declared martial law without an effective head of state, as the opposition impeached Mr Yoon's stand-in - only for him to be reinstated by a court ruling.

The leadership vacuum comes during a series of crises and headwinds, including an aviation disaster and the deadliest wildfires in the country's history.

This week, South Korea was slammed with 25% tariffs on exports to key ally the United States after President Donald Trump unveiled global, so-called reciprocal levies.

Since December, South Korea has been "partially paralysed - it has been without a legitimate president and has been challenged by natural disasters and the political disaster called Trump," Vladimir Tikhonov, Korean Studies professor at the University of Oslo, told AFP.

Mr Yoon also faces a separate criminal trial on charges of insurrection over the martial law bid, making him the first sitting South Korean president to stand trial in a criminal case.

Many law and constitution experts expect that the court will uphold Mr Yoon's impeachment.

Read more: South Korea's president reverses martial law effort after lawmakers reject it

"Given the patently unconstitutional and illegal nature of attempting to seize the National Assembly through the deployment of martial law forces, it seems highly unlikely that a dismissal of the impeachment is a viable outcome," Lee Jong-soo, a professor at Yonsei University Law School, told AFP.

"Based solely on legal principles, I would expect an 8-0 unanimous ruling in favour of upholding the impeachment," he added.

But another expert, Professor Lee In-ho at Chung-Ang University's school of law, predicts the court could end in a deadlock.

Mr Lee told AFP he thinks the impeachment will likely be dismissed with "the constitutional interpretation concerning the president's justification for declaring martial law (to) remain unresolved."