San Jose State vs. San Diego State prediction: Odds, picks, best bet Saturday night

There were still six teams alive in the chase for the Mountain West Championship going into Week 13, but only San Diego State controlled its own destiny.

The Aztecs (8-2, 5-1) will get into the title game with wins over San Jose State and New Mexico, and a win in the championship could be enough to get San Diego State into the College Football Playoff, but they’d need a lot of out-of-town scoreboard help for that to be the case.

Nonetheless, it’s a remarkable turnaround in Sean Lewis’ second year in charge at SDSU.

San Jose State vs. San Diego State odds, prediction

In a way, these two teams are where the other was projected to be in 2025.

The Spartans took a big step forward in 2024 and had all the right ingredients to be a dark horse in the Mountain West, while the Aztecs were coming off a tough campaign in Lewis’ first season.

San Jose State failed to build on the promise of 2024, while San Diego State made massive gains thanks to one of the best defenses in the country.

The Aztecs rank fifth in points allowed per game (13.9), ninth in yards allowed per contest (282.1) and sixth in yards per play (4.2).

Some of those numbers are a little inflated because of San Diego State’s strength of schedule, but the Aztecs still grade out as the 20th-best defense in the country, per SP+, which adjusts for opponents.

It could be a long day at the office for San Jose State, which needs its offense to drive the bus to have any chance at success.

The Spartans boast a solid offensive profile, but they are heavily reliant on the passing game. Only Middle Tennessee State throws the ball more frequently than San Jose State this season.

That should play right into San Diego State’s hands.

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The Aztecs allow the fifth-fewest yards per pass (5.6) in FBS and rank seventh in opponents’ completion percentage (54.5 percent).

San Diego State’s offense isn’t a world-beater, but it shouldn’t have to put up a massive number against a leaky defense to get us to the window.

The Play: San Diego State -12.5 (-110, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.