Texas A&M vs. Texas prediction: College football odds, picks, best bet Friday

· New York Post

Everything is bigger in Texas, and this rivalry game is absolutely massive between two ranked squads.

Friday marks a heavy pivot point in Marcel Reed’s Heisman campaign as No. 3 Texas A&M (11-0) looks to keep its unbeaten streak alive against No. 16 Texas (8-3).

It’s the Aggies’ best start since their perfect 1992 season as they’ve already locked up a berth in the SEC Championship game. 

Texas A&M proved it can respond under pressure when it engineered the biggest comeback in school history by erasing a 27-point halftime hole and rallied past South Carolina 31-30. 

After thumping Samford 48-0, this Aggies offense is humming to 38.1 ppg and grades as the second-best attack according to SP+.

The Longhorns have dealt with their fair share of adversity since kicking off the year as the No. 1 rank in college football. Their path to the College Football Playoff — or even a bowl game — remains razor thin.

Texas A&M vs. Texas odds, prediction

We’ve watched empirical development from Arch Manning since the 14-7 season opening defeat to No. 1 Ohio State. Manning’s growth in decision-making and accuracy has led to a spate of big plays both in the air and on the ground with a couple of wins over ranked opponents and the Longhorns’ most recent 52-37 barn burner against Arkansas.

Even though it could be too late, the Longhorns have begun unlocking the offensive upside it once projected: Manning has tossed 13 touchdowns to just two interceptions in his last four games while Texas has notched at least 34 points in three of those contests.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning warms up against Arkansas. AP

Texas A&M’s susceptibility to broken tackles, ranking outside the top 100 teams, and persistent struggles in the red zone offer Texas a blueprint to exploit.

Though Reed and co. are bound to make up for it on the other side of the ball.

He’s emerged as one of the country’s most dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks, collecting multiple touchdown passes in all but two games this season while adding meaningful production on the ground.

The Longhorns’ vulnerability to hitch, slant and out routes plays right into Reed’s strengths.

Plus, Texas’ secondary is dead last in the SEC and has bled out 325 passing yards over its past four games. 

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This welcomes Aggies wideouts KC Concepcion and Mario Craver to have their way with explosive chunk plays; the pair averages 153.4 yards per game — an FBS-best total for a receiver duo.

It’s a big reason why the Aggies have posted at least 31 points in seven straight games while the Over has cashed in five of their last six.

With emotions running high, I expect defensive discipline to waver and some momentum swings that could generate short fields and quick scores in Austin. 

THE PLAY: Over 52.5 (-105, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.