Analysis: Andy Burnham's route back to the Commons is clearer - but one big hurdle remains

Two big hurdles in the way of Andy Burnham's return to Parliament have been cleared.

A Labour MP has stood down, allowing the Greater Manchester mayor to put himself forward as a parliamentary candidate.

The last time that happened, before the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year, Sir Keir Starmer used his authority and control over Labour's ruling National Executive Committee to block Burnham from standing.

This time, Number 10 has indicated it will not seek to block him again.

After a week in which nearly a third of the party, including the health secretary and four ministers, have called for the prime minister to resign, it was unlikely Sir Keir would have had the authority to repeat the move.

So another hurdle is cleared out of Burnham's way.

The big one remains: can he win the seat?

At the general election two years ago Reform UK came second to Labour with about just under a third of the vote.

But at last week's elections, Makerfield - where Burnham would stand as MP - saw Reform hammer Labour, winning all 11 wards in and around half the vote in the constituency.

Nigel Farage has already said his party "will throw absolutely everything at it".

Ahead of what will be a messy and bitter battle with Reform, there are early signs of a truce in Labour's internal war.

Josh Simons, the Labour MP for Makerfield who is standing down to make way for Burnham, is not from the same wing of the party as him.

He is a close ally of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose immigration reforms are deeply controversial with the Labour left. He also used to run the think tank Labour Together, which is closely associated with the party's right, after it propelled Sir Keir to leader.

So it is particularly notable that Simons, not a typical ally of Burnham, was the one to stand down for him.

Burnham's supporters have been quick to badge him a "unity" candidate. They hope this will put further pressure on Sir Keir to set a timetable for his departure from Downing Street.

But others across Labour's wings and factions have privately suggested they would also now support Burnham for leader, if he can win the by-election. That includes those known to previously back other leadership rivals.

One minister said: "I think Josh [Simons] has just single-handedly given the Labour Party a route to winning back the trust of the British people."

When pressed if they were a supporter of Burnham becoming leader, the minister replied: "If he wins [the by-election] we all are."

Another minister, who as recently as Wednesday supported Sir Keir continuing, said: "It's Burnham now, if he can beat Reform."

Another MP, from the right of the party, said Simons's decision was "politically brave" and "allows us to settle the question of if Andy Burnham is the right person for prime minister once and for all."

Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a close friend of Burnham, will make her support for him clear on Friday.

"Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner should all be key players in our team," she is expected to say.

"Andy wants to come back to Parliament - I've always supported his desire to do so, and I support that again. As Deputy Leader, I am confident he would have the support of the vast majority of the Party and movement in doing so."

It is not a universal consensus.

Luke Akehurst, a prominent voice on the right of the Labour Party, said: "This level of internal game playing risks driving us into a General Election within months, as well as causing months of deep political instability that have real world consequences for the economy and national security. I am, to put it mildly, unimpressed."

Another said: "It is disgraceful behaviour by both of them [Simons and Burnham]. We are the Labour Party. We are not about one person or ego."

The short-term consequence is likely to be paralysis in government. For now Sir Keir is insisting he will not resign and has been making known to allies he will fight any leadership contest if one is triggered.

But focus will quickly turn to the by-election race in Makerfield.

It will probably be a strange contest. One former party strategist suggested the only viable campaign strategy for Burnham was to stand as the vehicle to remove Sir Keir from Downing Street.

Or if - as Burnham's allies hope - Sir Keir has already announced a date for his departure, then he will have to run against the record of the government, promising to turn away from the mistakes and U-turns, and forward to a bolder and more imaginative offer.

It will be the biggest test yet for a man who has already twice run for Labour leader. If Burnham fails to win, his long-held ambitions are over.

Win, and he will have demonstrated that he can turn the electoral tide with at least some voters who have drifted to Reform coming back - in contrast to Sir Keir who has presided over tumbling poll ratings.

The prize is almost certainly the Labour leadership, and Number 10.

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