Solana (SOL) Price: Trading Under $150, Facing More Pressure, What's Next? - Blockonomi

TLDR

• Solana (SOL) has been on a six-week downtrend, currently trading around $150, down from its peak of $294.
• A whale transferred 846,613 SOL (worth $127 million) to an unknown wallet, raising concerns about a potential sell-off.
• Technical indicators suggest SOL could drop further to around $109-$120 if it breaks below the $155 support level.
• A major token unlock of 11.2 million SOL (worth $1.7 billion) is scheduled for March 1, 2025, likely contributing to price pressure.
• Despite bearish trends, exchanges have seen a $77 million outflow of SOL in 24 hours, suggesting some whales may be accumulating.

Solana (SOL), the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has been on a downward trend for six weeks straight. The digital asset is now trading at approximately $150, reflecting a steep drop from its yearly high of $294 reached in early 2025. This decline comes as a major whale moved large sums and a massive token unlock looms on the horizon.

The decline intensified when a Solana whale transferred 846,613 SOL tokens, valued at about $127 million, to an unknown wallet in a single transaction. This large movement has sparked debate among investors about whether it signals an upcoming sell-off or represents strategic accumulation during a market dip.

Most traders believe the substantial transfer points to preparation for selling, given the current market mood. Only a small number of investors view this as an accumulation strategy before a potential market recovery. The transfer has increased daily trading volumes for SOL but hasn’t reversed its downward price trajectory.

On-chain data shows SOL has dropped by 11% in less than 24 hours, settling around $152. Since reaching its peak at the start of the year, SOL has lost nearly half its value in under a month. Despite these losses, SOL maintains a market cap of $75.4 billion, keeping it among the top cryptocurrencies by valuation.

The downward momentum appears to be gathering strength as SOL has fallen below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This technical pattern, known as a “death cross,” often signals more bearish movement ahead. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) technical indicators also suggest further price drops, with some analysts projecting SOL could reach as low as $109.

Token Unlocks

Adding to the bearish outlook, a major token unlock is scheduled for March 1, 2025. This event will release 11.2 million SOL tokens, worth approximately $1.7 billion, into the market. The anticipation of this supply increase has likely contributed to February’s 37% price decline.

Smaller token unlocks will follow in April and May, adding another $13.75 million to the circulating supply. These planned releases are part of Solana’s tokenomics structure but come at a challenging time for the asset’s price performance.

Technical analysis shows SOL is losing crucial support at the $155 level. If it breaks below this threshold and closes a daily candle under $155, experts predict a further 22% drop that could take the price down to around $120. SOL is currently trading below the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe, which confirms the downtrend.

The decrease in SOL price coincides with falling network activity. Solana network fees and memecoin activity have declined in recent weeks. The number of active Solana users has dropped to its lowest level in five months, showing reduced engagement with the blockchain.

Solana is also losing ground to Ethereum in weekly decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes. This metric suggests traders are favoring other networks for their transactions, which could further impact Solana’s value proposition.

However, not all signs point to continued decline. According to on-chain analytics firm Coinglass, exchanges have seen an outflow of over $77 million worth of SOL in the past 24 hours. This outflow pattern often indicates that long-term holders and institutional investors are moving tokens off exchanges into cold storage, typically a sign of accumulation rather than selling pressure.

These conflicting signals—technical indicators pointing downward while whale movements suggest possible accumulation—have created uncertainty about SOL’s near-term price direction. The fact that trading volume has surged by 157% in a 24-hour period shows heightened market participation amid the bearish sentiment.

Some optimistic investors are looking to potential regulatory developments as a catalyst for reversal. They hope that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF), similar to the recently approved Bitcoin ETFs. Such approval could bring institutional money into Solana and potentially reverse the bearish trend.

For now, SOL continues to face downward pressure as it approaches the March 1 token unlock date. The price currently hovers around $157.90, having dropped over 7% in just 24 hours. The combination of technical weakness, upcoming supply increases, and reduced network activity presents challenges for Solana in the near term.

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