Bull Market Not Over Yet: Why Bitcoin Could Soar Through 2026 - Blockonomi
by Oliver Dale · BlockonomiTLDR
- Raoul Pal predicts Bitcoin bull market could extend to 2026, beyond conventional expectations of a 2025 peak
- Global M2 money supply and ISM Manufacturing Index are key indicators supporting an extended uptrend in Bitcoin
- A weakening US dollar signals positive conditions for crypto in Q2 2025, with potential for gains in second half of year
- Bitcoin has experienced seven 20%+ corrections while maintaining a 600% gain from cycle lows
- Multiple 30-40% pullbacks are normal in crypto bull markets before reaching peak values
The ongoing Bitcoin bull market may stretch into 2026, according to Raoul Pal, the founder of Real Vision and a well-known macro analyst. This prediction extends beyond most experts’ expectations of a market peak in 2025.
Pal’s forecast is based on several factors including the Global M2 money supply, which tracks the total liquidity circulating worldwide. Bitcoin and other risk-on assets tend to follow this metric closely.
“If this is the case, then M2 is going to keep going up all year,” Pal stated. He noted that if this happens, “crypto and risk assets like tech will do well all year.”
The connection between Bitcoin and global liquidity isn’t new. Pal compared current trends to those seen in 2017, when the dollar weakened during President Trump’s first term.
Similar conditions are developing now. A weaker dollar often drives investors toward alternative assets like cryptocurrencies to protect their wealth.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index is another key factor in Pal’s thesis. This index tracks the business cycle, with readings above 50 indicating economic expansion.
“Bitcoin goes up as the ISM goes up,” Pal explained. He added that if the ISM reaches its normal cycle peak between 56 and 65, it could push Bitcoin’s price substantially higher.
How high could Bitcoin go? While avoiding exact predictions, Pal suggested Bitcoin could exceed $300,000 if these favorable conditions continue.
In a March 5 post on X (formerly Twitter), Pal noted that “with the dollar, rates and oil headed lower, financial conditions are now easing fast.” These changing conditions lead risk assets by a couple of months.
Since February 5, the US Dollar Index has dropped 2.79% to 104.258. During this same period, Bitcoin has gained almost 6%, trading at around $91,860.
Regarding other cryptocurrencies, Pal maintains that Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) remain important parts of his portfolio. Despite Solana’s recent 53% drop, he believes it “should outperform Bitcoin for the rest of the cycle.”
Pal dismissed fears about altcoins, saying, “That’s all nonsense.” He expects altcoins to outperform Bitcoin later in the cycle as investors look for higher-return opportunities.
Large price swings are normal in crypto markets, according to Pal. The current cycle has already seen seven corrections of over 20%, yet Bitcoin has maintained a 600% gain from its cycle lows.
Pal warned traders against using too much leverage or panic selling during these dips. He compared the current correction to 2017, which saw multiple 30-40% pullbacks before reaching its peak.
Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index suggests the market is the second most oversold in this cycle. This technical indicator points to a potential recovery in the coming months.
Why might this cycle extend into 2026? Pal believes it’s due to the extended period of economic stagnation before growth started accelerating. “The business cycle is taking a long time below 50. It’s starting to expand now. That has probably extended the cycle into 2026.”
Pal described the crypto market as following a predictable pattern, with a year-long period of exponential growth he calls the “banana zone.” He expects the market to accelerate again by April-May.
However, investors should prepare for another major correction before the final market top. Pal stressed the importance of patience and proper portfolio construction for long-term success.
The second quarter has historically been strong for Bitcoin, with average returns of 26.89% since 2013. With easing financial conditions, Pal expects “a good Q2 for tech and crypto and hopefully H2 2025 too.”