James Talarico wins Texas. Democrats can thank Ken Paxton | Opinion

For the first time since 1994, a Democrat has won statewide office in Texas, the largest red state in the nation. State legislator James Talarico, a former schoolteacher and seminarian, has defeated the scandal-plagued Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, according to projections by Decision Desk HQ and NBC News.

He becomes the first Democrat Texas has elected to the Senate since 1988. His win may help hand Democrats control of the chamber.

More than $570 million was spent on ads in the race, making it the most expensive nonpresidential contest in U.S. history.

Polling averages showed Talarico holding a narrow but persistent lead in the final weeks, even as the race tightened. Early voting offered a clue that he might actually pull it off. More than 7.7 million Texans cast ballots before Nov. 3, a record for a midterm election.

For perspective, nearly 5.5 million voters in Texas cast ballots early in 2022, and just over 19 million are registered to vote.

I'm frustrated that Texans elected a Democrat who is far more progressive than he let on, but I'm more upset with the Republican Party for offering such a terrible alternative. Republican primary voters ousted Sen. John Cornyn in the runoff and chose Paxton, despite his considerable baggage and an anemic campaign.

However, based on the Democratic sweep of races nationwide as Election Day results have rolled in, it's clear Cornyn − or any other Republican candidate − would have been facing an uphill battle to win in this environment.

Talarico's victory demonstrates what happens when Republicans fail to nominate a quality candidate and when Texan voters are truly fed up voting for Republicans who align with Trump. Republicans have no one to blame for this loss but themselves.

Talarico's win is historic, but frustrating

Exit polls may help explain how Talarico did it. But for now, a few reasons are obvious.

Talarico is a charming, dynamic candidate with a Barack Obama-like appeal that drew Hollywood celebrities, big name donors and Texas newspapers alike, including the Dallas Morning News, which had backed Cornyn in every race he ever ran. He campaigned hard, and he campaigned well. One of the last ads of his I saw before Election Day was so good it could have passed for a Republican spot – full of hope, optimism and the Texas spirit.

Talarico was also strategic in a smarmy, deceitful way. To look even remotely appealing to conservative Texans, he traded his long-held, garden-variety progressive beliefs for a far more moderate facade.

Before Talarico ran statewide, his record as a leftist was clear. He twisted traditional Christian beliefs into relativistic, watered-down blasphemy, declaring on the Texas House floor that "God is nonbinary." He voted against keeping boys out of girls' sports. He even denounced capitalism as an "oppressive system" that should be dismantled and said that leading in oil and gas was "like being the leader in cassette tapes in the 1980s" – in Texas, of all places, the energy capital of the United States.

But when he became the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate, Talarico started walking things back. He admitted he had "missed the mark" on some past statements, called his nonbinary God remark "provocative," said he opposes trans athletes in girls' sports "if it endangers safety or fairness," and had his campaign rebrand him a "proud capitalist." His message became hope and unity, not Republicans vs. Democrats.

Unethical, but calculated and effective.

Ken Paxton was an abysmal candidate

Talarico had one more thing going for him, the thing that drove so many Texans to vote for him or skip the race altogether: Ken Paxton.

Paxton has to be one of the worst Republican candidates to run for office in the past decade, let alone in a conservative juggernaut like Texas. Talarico won at least in part because his opponent was so bad. A CBS News poll found that 48% of Talarico supporters said they were voting for him because they liked him, compared with only 23% of Paxton supporters who said the same about Paxton.

Talarico courted moderate swing voters and independents who were skeptical of, even disgusted by, Paxton, who somehow rode scandal after scandal – a securities fraud indictment, a federal corruption investigation, an impeachment trial and a pending divorce after 38 years of marriage – all the way to a U.S. Senate nomination. Plus, he's boring and inarticulate.

If I tried to dislike Paxton more, I couldn't. Millions of Texans feel the same way, and they showed up at the ballot box.

Congrats, Democrats: Talarico's win is historic, if undeserved. Congrats, Republicans: Your loss is historic, too – and well deserved.

Nicole Russell is an opinion columnist with USA TODAY. She lives in Texas with her four kids. Sign up for her newsletter, The Right Track, and get it delivered to your inbox.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: James Talarico wins Texas. Democrats can thank Ken Paxton | Opinion

Reporting by Nicole Russell, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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This story was originally published November 3, 2026 at 8:10 PM.