Pick Six Previews: Ohio State's upward trend to continue over Texas in CFP semifinal

Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes

DALLAS — Two blueblood programs face off in the second national semifinal game of the expanded 12-team playoff era Friday.

Ohio State and Texas are two absolute heavyweights any way you slice it: all-time wins, championship history, brand, revenue, booster network, recruiting, NFL pipeline, etc. And within the 2024 season, this matchup features top-rated units and All-Americans all over the field.

Ohio State has been the Big Ten's flagship program for two decades but took a backseat to rival Michigan the past few seasons. This year the expanded bracket gave them an extra mulligan to make the playoff with a 10-2 record, even after another loss to their rival.

And with that opportunity the Buckeyes rounded into their most dominant form by destroying No. 9 Tennessee 42-17 and No. 1 Oregon 41-21. The program is no stranger to the playoff, having won the inaugural 2014 national championship and ranking third in most appearances.

Making their long-awaited first appearance is Texas. While they failed to win the SEC in their transition season — and lost to Georgia twice — they now remain as their new conference's lone representative in the semifinals.

The Longhorns defeated two other Power Four conference champs to arrive at the final four: Clemson 38-24 and a double-overtime thriller over Arizona State 39-31.

The blockbuster home-and-home series in 2005 and 2006 between Vince Young and Troy Smith sent the winners to the national championship game. This one will do the same (5:30 p.m. MST, ESPN).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2021-23): Ohio State 82.0 (3rd of 70 Power Four) | Texas 67.2 (8th)
2023 season: Ohio State 77.7 (5th) | Texas 82.4 (4th)
2024 season: Ohio State 87.7 (1st) | Texas 84.4 (2nd)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

Ohio State entered the season with Georgia as the clear-cut national title contenders. The Buckeyes dominated everyone on their schedule except for a toss-up game loss at Oregon 32-31 in the final seconds, and then a 13-10 failure against Michigan.

Their playoff performances were two of the most dominant single-game scores in my 2024 Game Grader, and they now rank as the No. 1 overall team.

Texas is right behind them at No. 2 in 2024 Game Grader. The Longhorns went 11-1 in their SEC debut, then lost to Georgia a second time in Atlanta. In both playoff wins, they jumped out to big leads but allowed the opposing offenses to narrow the margins.

Texas with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Texas offense (2024): 12th of 70 Power Four (8th passing, 29th rushing)
Ohio State defense (2024): 1st of 70 Power Four (3rd passing, 1st rushing)

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is one of the best play-designers in college football. The team jumps out to early leads with wide-open, long touchdown passes, and rank No. 9 nationally in explosive passing.

Quinn Ewers began his career at Ohio State, but the five-star talent quickly transferred to Texas, where he has started for the past three seasons. He actually took a slight step back, at least statistically, from 2023 to 2024 with declines in yards per attempt, touchdowns, and QB rating, where he checks in at No. 23 nationally this year.

Injuries have been an issue at two position groups. The running back room took a hit in the preseason, but now the offensive line has two questionable starters for Friday: Cameron Williams and All-American tackle Kelvin Banks.

This is bad news considering they are facing arguably the best pass rush in the nation. Ohio State is No. 3 in my negative play rate that tracks plays made behind the line of scrimmage. The line sacked Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel eight times in the Rose Bowl, and Ewers lacks Gabriel's mobility.

Ohio State's defense has a perfect stat profile: No. 1 in scoring (12.1 per game), No. 1 in yardage (245 per game and 4.1 per play), No. 1 in my opponent-adjusted metric, and No. 1 in pass defense.

Caleb Downs is one of the best defenders in the country, corner Denzel Burke has bounced back into NFL form, and Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau are an unstoppable one-two punch in the trenches.

This matchup favors Ohio State.

Ohio State with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Ohio State offense (2024): 2nd of 70 Power Four (1st passing, 10th rushing)
Texas defense (2024): 2nd of 70 Power Four (2nd passing, 6th rushing)

This side of the ball is the highest-rated "strength-on-strength" that we've seen in 2024. The No. 1 passing offense is throwing against the No. 2 passing defense. Overall, Ohio State has the No. 2 offense, while Texas brings the No. 2 defense.

Those stats are season-long totals, but if you narrow in on recent performance, the units are heading in different directions.

Ohio State retired its conservative, run-heavy play-calling from the Michigan game and instead opened up the vertical pass game and torched Tennessee and Oregon. Freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith — my vote for the Biletnikoff Award — put up 187 receiving yards and two touchdowns on just seven catches last week.

The running back duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are one of just two pairs over 900 yards apiece.

Meanwhile, Texas allowed 336 passing yards to Clemson and then let Arizona State back from a 24-8 lead. Last game, the Longhorns' defenders were on the field for over 100 snaps, which is almost double the amount in a usual game.

They have star power to match their counterparts, with All-America defensive back Jahdae Barron, All-SEC Anthony Hill, and freshman of the year winner Colin Simmons (a title Buckeyes fans would argue). But having avoided Ole Miss, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Alabama in league play, Texas has still not faced a top-10 offense.

Game prediction

According to my Game Grader, this is a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup. There is star power everywhere, and some mock NFL draft projections have 21 prospects that would go in the first three rounds — and that doesn't include freshman phenoms Smith and Simmons.

Weighing the whole season equally, Game Grader would project Ohio State to win by a field goal. If we weigh it more toward recent performances, that margin grows to double digits.

Ohio State is rounding into the superpower team we originally expected, and they will advance to their sixth national title game of the BCS/playoff era.

Ohio State 34 | Texas 21

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Brett Ciancia

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Brett Ciancia is the owner of Pick Six Previews, a college football preview magazine graded as the "Most Accurate Season Preview" since 2012 (via Stassen). Ciancia was named a Heisman Trophy voter in 2019 and was invited to the FWAA's All-America Team selection committee in 2020.