College football betting: Texas Tech vs Houston offers clear favorite

Some early-season games mean a lot more than others, not just in terms of the College Football Playoff, the polls or the standings, but also in helping us learn what teams really are.

Friday night’s Houston-Texas Tech game encompasses all of those things. It could be extremely important in the CFP picture, but it will be especially helpful in determining whether the Cougars are ready to make the leap some expect.

Neither team has been tested much ahead of this Top 25 matchup, but they do have a common opponent in Oregon State, for whatever that’s worth. Houston beat the Beavers 33-20 at home, and the Red Raiders went to Corvallis and won 35-24. Otherwise, Houston pummeled FCS opponent Southern, and Texas Tech received more resistance from FCS opponent Abilene Christian in a 33-10 victory, coming nowhere close to covering the 45½-point spread.

The biggest question that needs to be answered is what we can expect from the Red Raiders’ offense as the season progresses. It’s clear they didn’t have a ton of confidence in Will Hammond, as top transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby was a very early target for Joey McGuire and his staff. As it turns out, Sorsby was like a lot of college-age students and engaged in sports betting, but he committed the cardinal sin of betting on college football games involving his team.

Texas Tech averaged 4.65 yards per play against Oregon State, a team against which Houston averaged 7.4. In fact, the Red Raiders were outgained by nearly 140 yards this past week and had fewer explosive plays. The major differences between the two offenses were quarterback play and play selection.

Oregon State quarterback Braden Atkinson completed 31 of 51 passes for 413 yards, while Hammond was 20 of 27 for 189 yards. The Red Raiders ran 47 times for only 155 yards, an average of 3.3 yards per carry, and Hammond was sacked four times. The offensive line didn’t get much of a push.

Meanwhile, Conner Weigman has been sacked only once. Houston has relied heavily on the run, averaging better than 7 yards per carry on 86 attempts. Weigman has completed 69 percent of his passes with a 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Atkinson threw for 376 yards against the Cougars, but Houston had a much better offensive showing, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and gaining more than 300 passing yards on just 20 completions.

Based on that common opponent, it appears Houston’s offensive line has gotten more push early in the season, but both pass defenses have had issues. The Beavers averaged 8 yards per pass attempt against the Red Raiders and 7.8 against the Cougars. Both secondaries will need to tighten up here.

Last season’s game had plenty of intrigue, as Houston and Texas Tech both entered 4-0. The Red Raiders were coming off a bye week after demolishing Utah in Salt Lake City. To say Texas Tech was dominant would be an understatement. The Red Raiders beat the Cougars 35-11, outgained them by nearly 300 yards, won the turnover battle, had more than twice as many first downs and pitched a second-half shutout.

However, there are some different faces now. Houston didn’t have running backs Makhi Hughes or Re’Shaun Sanford II, both of whom have surpassed 100 rushing yards this season. Weigman left the game with an upper-body injury in the second quarter and did not return. Backup Zeon Chriss-Gremillion completed 5 of 13 passes for 93 yards.

On the other side, Behren Morton started and completed 28 of 40 passes for 345 yards and a touchdown. Jacob Rodriguez led the team with eight tackles, including two for loss, and added two pass breakups. David Bailey had two sacks. Texas Tech also made 5 of 7 field-goal attempts, as it created scoring opportunities but still left points on the field.

Last season’s line was Texas Tech minus-13 on the road, and the Red Raiders covered with relative ease. This year’s line is in the single digits with Texas Tech at home.

Clearly, we’ve seen significant market-rating adjustments for both teams. As of now, it looks like too much of an adjustment to me. I have Texas Tech minus-10.5 in my power ratings.

Cameron Dickey is averaging only 2.8 yards per carry for the Red Raiders after rushing for more than 1,100 yards last season. J’Koby Williams looks good, and Hammond played a lot last season.

I’ll give McGuire and his staff the benefit of the doubt and assume they’ll get more serious now.

Pick: Texas Tech -8