Golden Knights-Avalanche series preview: Breakdown, X Factors and prediction

DENVER — The Colorado Avalanche have ruled the NHL this season like Thanos.

They’ve ran through the league, gathering Infinity Stones as if it’s like breathing. So far, they’ve gotten three of six.

The Presidents’ Trophy. A four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Kings. A five-game manhandling of the Minnesota Wild. One by one, they’ve felt as inevitable as Marvel’s ultimate super villain.

Standing in their way, the Vegas Golden Knights — the Avengers in this unlikely scenario.

They’re not the last official line of defense, but they’re the last group that can stop Thanos from completing the Infinity Gauntlet and wiping out half the earth’s population.

No, the Western Conference final is not the equivalent of the fate of the universe being at stake. But playoff hockey is about parallels, and this is one of them.

The Avalanche are eight wins away from completing one of the more dominant seasons from a team in recent memory. The Knights, for the first time in a long time, are the definitive underdog in a playoff series.

“They have veterans. They’ve won,” Knightsncenter Jack Eichel said. “They’ve played this time of year. They had a tremendous regular season and really carried that to the playoffs.”

It’s the first time in five years the Knights and Avalanche are meeting in the playoffs. Perhaps five years too long. The Knights won in six games in an epic series in which they won four straight after falling behind 2-0.

These two teams are the class of the Western Conference. They’re the last two teams from the conference to hoist the Stanley Cup — Colorado in 2022, followed by the Knights in 2023.

Both teams struggled the past two years to return to this point. First-round exits. Disappointing playoff defeats. Falling short of expectations.

It seemed fitting that the Knights and Avalanche would find their way back at some point. This time, for a spot in the Stanley Cup Final on the line.

“I think we have to focus on getting to our game as fast as we can,” defenseman Shea Theodore said. “Just controlling what we can control.

About the Avalanche

It’s not a secret with the Avalanche. It starts and ends with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.

The narrative against the Knights in the first two rounds was the speed of Utah and Anaheim. The Knights struggled with that at times. They got better as the series went on both times.

Experience took over. The Knights won the crucial swing fifth games, then finished off the Mammoth and Ducks in commanding fashion in Game 6

This is a different animal.

Colorado earned 121 points in the regular season to capture their fourth Presidents’ Trophy and second under coach Jared Bednar.

The Avalanche have speed. Specifically, one of the fastest players in the world is one of the best players in the world.

Eyes will be on MacKinnon every time he has the puck. Overplay him, his elite vision allows him to make plays to his teammates. Lay off of him, and he can make defenses pay with his shot.

“It’s a big challenge. It’ll be a big challenge for our group,” Eichel said. “Nate’s an incredible player. He poses a lot of challenges for our group with his speed, how dynamic he is and his ability to make plays at top speed. We have to be prepared for that.”

Colorado is just as banged up, if not slightly more, than the Knights. That starts with Makar, who is dealing with a shoulder issue he suffered in the clinching Game 5 against the Minnesota Wild.

Makar hasn’t practiced since the Avalanche wrapped up the second round. He was the only notable not to practice on Tuesday.

Bednar said there isn’t any concern on Makar being available for Game 1.

“Not yet,” he followed. Which tells you how serious this is.

A healthy Makar makes a difference. His three-point effort in Game 1 against Minnesota speaks for itself. A banged-up Makar? That opens the door slightly. The threat of Makar still looms, but the onus of the production offensively rests on the forwards.

But Colorado is deep. Arguable deeper than the team that won in 2022.

The Avalanche bolstered their center depth with not just the re-acquisition of center Nazem Kadri, but adding former Knights center Nicolas Roy prior to the trade deadline. They also have Selke Trophy finalist Brock Nelson as their second-line center.

The Knights know how impactful Roy can be, especially in the playoffs. He’s gone from a fourth-line center winning a Cup with the Knights, to playing a middle-six role in Colorado. He’s currently at second-line right wing.

“He’s a great player. A great person,” Theodore said of Roy. “It’s good to see him succeed and play well.”

Roy was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs on July 1 for the signing rights to Mitch Marner — the NHL’s leader in playoff scoring. This is the full-circle moment that Maple Leafs have dreaded.

Season series breakdown

The Avalanche took two of three meetings against the Knights, including arguably the game of the year at T-Mobile Arena on Dec. 27, a 6-5 shootout win.

Colorado didn’t lead once the entire game. The Knights led 4-2 after two periods and 5-4 with four minutes remaining.

But winger Artturi Lehkonen tied it with 1:57 to go, and the Avalanche went on to win in the fourth round of the skills competition.

The Knights got revenge on April 11, their last road game of the year, with a 3-2 overtime victory that clinched a playoff spot in coach John Tortorella’s sixth game with the team.

That was also the night Carter Hart solidified his role as the starting goaltender going into the playoffs with a 30-save effort.

X Factors

Avalanche: Martin Necas, RW

For all the talk of Colorado’s speed, Necas can also supply that in bulk. Necas, who was acquired in the shocking trade involving Mikko Rantanen last season, has turned into a lethal playmaker with MacKinnon on his line. He has one goal and 11 points in the playoffs — nine of his 10 assists came against the Wild. With attention on MacKinnon, Necas could see a lot more shooting chances this series.

Golden Knights: Tomas Hertl, C

Colorado has depth and can score from anywhere. The Knights are going to need that from Hertl, who broke out of a two-month slump with goals in Games 4 and 5 against Anaheim. Tortorella has liked the overall play of Hertl’s line. That line, now with Brandon Saad and Colton Sissons on the wing, has generated more chances and has forechecked well. The Knights are going to need depth to prevail if the top six is canceled out. Hertl needs to be that difference maker if the Knights have a shot.

Key to the series

Playing with structure: Defense is going to be paramount, especially for the Knights. When the Avalanche get going with their collective speed, it’s hard for any team to slow them down.

The Knights need to make sure their neutral zone defense is clean and have to force Colorado into a half-court game. Tortorella is going to emphasize playing aggressive and further up in the play.

If the Avalanche get behind the defense, it’s going to be a dangerous scoring chance nine times out of 10. Hart will need to be at his best in the event of those breakdowns.

Prediction

It’s been a commendable run for the Knights to this point. They’ve played with a purpose under Tortorella. They turned a season around when it looked bleak two months ago. There’s no shame in going out to the best team in the leauge. This is one of those times. The Knights are going to give the Avalanche a run for their money. But like Thanos, Colorado seems inevitable. Avalanche in 7

Up next

Who: Golden Knights at Avalanche

What: Western Conference Final, Game 1

When: 5 p.m. Wednesday

Where: Ball Arena, Denver

TV: ESPN

Radio: KFLG 94.7 FM/KKGK 1340 AM

Line: Avalanche -185; total 6

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Series schedule:

Game 1: Wednesday, 5 p.m. at Ball Arena (ESPN)

Game 2: Friday, 5 p.m. at Ball Arena (ESPN)

Game 3: Sunday, 5 p.m. at T-Mobile Arena (ESPN)

Game 4: Tuesday, 6 p.m. at T-Mobile Arena (ESPN)

*Game 5: May 28, 5 p.m. at Ball Arena (ESPN)

*Game 6: May 30, 5 p.m. at T-Mobile Arena (ABC)

*Game 7: June 1, 5 p.m. at T-Mobile Arena (ESPN)

*if necessary