Jackson’s return leads to shocking shift in Ravens’ division, playoff odds

Only four of 358 NFL teams have made the playoffs after starting 1-5 or worse, according to ESPN. But oddsmakers expect the Ravens to beat the 1.1-in-100 odds and make the postseason after starting 1-5.

After Baltimore beat the Bears 30-16 on Sunday to improve to 2-5, it became an odds-on -135 favorite at Circa Sports to make the playoffs and supplanted the Steelers as the -125 favorites to win the AFC North.

“(The Ravens) had to win (against the Bears), and the Bengals lost, the Browns lost and the Steelers lost. And now they’re the favorite to win the division. And they’re 2-5,” veteran Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “I don’t think I’ve ever seen that in my life.”

The Steelers (4-3) have a two-game lead over the Ravens, who are 7½-point favorites over the Dolphins (2-6) on “Thursday Night Football.” The game marks the return of Baltimore’s two-time NFL MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, who missed the last three games with a hamstring injury.

The total has inched up from 50½ to 51½.

“The ticket counts for tonight favor the Ravens at 67 percent and over at 65 percent,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said Thursday. “The early action has been on the Ravens and over.”

The action is even more lopsided at BetMGM, where 73 percent of the bets and 86 percent of the money are on the favorite and 61 percent of the bets and 92 percent of the money are on the over.

Favorites went 11-2 ATS in NFL Week 8 and overs went 9-2-2.

The Ravens have won nine of their last 12 meetings with Miami, including four of the last six in blowout fashion. They mauled the Dolphins 56-19 in their most recent matchup on New Year’s Eve in 2023.

Baltimore is on a 7-1 over run and Miami is on a 6-1 over uptick.

The Dolphins snapped a three-game losing streak in last week’s 34-10 win over the Falcons. The game stayed under by a half-point.

Jackson is the most bet player at BetMGM to score a touchdown Thursday at +170 odds.