Look for UNLV, New Mexico to battle for Mountain West supremacy

The Mountain West Conference chose not to release a predictive order of finish this season for its 2026 football season.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t do our own now.

Here is a look at our picks and how the conference breaks down this season (with last year’s records).

1. UNLV (10-4)

One thing the Rebels must do is continue their stellar play on the road, given three of the league’s toughest games (Hawaii, Air Force and New Mexico) are all away from Allegiant Stadium. If it gets a productive answer at quarterback between returner Alex Orji or Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold, UNLV should again feature one of the conference’s most dynamic offenses. Defense is key. UNLV needs to be far more consistent on that side of the ball. Look for another big season from running back Jai’Den “Jet” Thomas, who enters eighth all-time in rushing in school history. It will be interesting to see how a group of talented but unproven wide receivers perform.

2. New Mexico (9-4)

We actually had the Lobos at the top spot in our poll before fifth-year quarterback Jack Layne suffered an elbow injury in camp following offseason surgery to repair a tendon. The Lobos feature the league’s reigning Coach of the Year in Jason Eck. Come on. The guy turned around New Mexico. They also get UNLV, Air Force and North Dakota State at home, where New Mexico was 6-0 last season. Twelve starters return for New Mexico, including all-everything linebacker Jaxton Eck. The No. 1 ranking is really a toss-up between UNLV and New Mexico, making the Nov. 14 game in Albuquerque all the more enticing.

3. Hawaii (9-4)

You look at the results of last year’s solid season and there are both highs and lows. But you can’t deny the potential of this offense — led by former Bishop Gorman star quarterback Micah Alejado — to light up Mountain West scoreboards on a weekly basis. Timmy Chang as Hawaii’s coach has slowly but surely built a contender on the island. But road games have been tough sledding under him. Good for them: UNLV, New Mexico and North Dakota State all must visit Hawaii and the Rainbow Warriors avoid Air Force on the schedule. Bad for them: Leading wide receiver and preseason all-conference pick Pofele Ashlock is sidelined with a knee injury.

4. Air Force (4-8)

Chalk this one up as the return of the Falcons. Troy Calhoun is in his 20th season as coach and three losses last season came by three points, including a crazy 51-48 setback at UNLV. The conference has some very talented quarterbacks this season and junior Liam Szarka fits the bill for Air Force. A two-way threat, he threw for 1,294 yards and ran for 922 more last year. The road might be tough in places — at Army and then at New Mexico to finish the season — but the Falcons get UNLV at home on Oct. 17.

5. North Dakota State (12-1)

Ah, the newbies of the group when it comes to contenders. The Bison are up from the FCS level, where they won 10 of the past 15 national championships. Know this: North Dakota State won’t be intimidated by elevating its program to the FBS and will enter the season every bit as sure it will chase a conference championship as anyone. So too will its lively fan base. Ten starters return for the bruising Bison. Potential issue: They face UNLV, New Mexico, Air Force and Hawaii on the road. Ouch.

6. UNR (3-9)

Yes, we’re calling for a vast improvement from the Wolf Pack under third-year coach Jeff Choate. Three of their toughest games (Air Force, Hawaii and New Mexico) are in Reno. UNR needs much better quarterback play this season if it’s going to compete on a weekly basis, and Choate will decide between returner Carter Jones, UCLA transfer Luke Duncan and fifth-year player AJ Bianco. A seven-game losing streak last season spelled disaster for the Wolf Pack, who did win two of their last three. They need to start games much faster, having been outscored 72-29 in the first quarter last year.

7. Wyoming (4-8)

Look first to William & Mary transfer quarterback Tyler Hughes, who threw for 2,330 and 23 scores and ran for 670 yards and 11 touchdowns while with The Tribe. Most believe it’s time for the Cowboys to start winning under third-year coach Jay Sawvel. The offense better be upgraded with Hughes now running the show, given Wyoming averaged just 16 points last season. Running back is a position of strength for the Cowboys, but the wide receiver group for the most part is new and unproven. Wyoming should still be stout enough on defense to keep it in games, but you can’t win if you can’t score.

8. San Jose State (3-9)

The Spartans had it going for a while as a program until they didn’t. Now, coach Ken Niumatalolo has to rebuild following the departure of countless players. The portal gobbled up its share from a team that was injured far too much last season. One bright spot continues to be a capable passing game in terms of yards, but falls short when it comes to turnovers (17 interceptions in 2025). In fact, the Spartans gave up the ball 27 times. But their experience in the Mountain West gives them the nod over the following two teams.

9. UTEP (2-10)

Another new face to the league, the Miners will get a tougher weekly test here than in Conference USA. But this is Scotty Walden’s best team in three years at UTEP, whose nonconference slate includes games at Oklahoma and Michigan. They also must travel to New Mexico, North Dakota State and Air Force. UTEP hasn’t tasted the fruits of a postseason bowl game since 2021. Like San Jose State, the Miners had to rebuild after the loss of several players. EJ Colson is a transfer quarterback who will be counted on heavily to produce.

10. Northern Illinois (3-9)

The final new member to the Mountain West. This isn’t the team that upset Notre Dame in Week 2 of the 2024 season, Far from it. Seven road games await, including early ones against Iowa and Arizona. The defense is completely rebuilt. Northern Illinois didn’t give itself much of a chance last season, getting badly outplayed in the fourth quarter of games. Like with the North Dakota States of the conference, Northern Illinois will force the run game until it works, And it has for the most part. Telly Johnson should immediately become one of the league’s more productive backs.