IDF on high alert amid fragile, temporary ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon

Military ready to return to fighting with force on both fronts; officials assess Iran will quickly start to rebuild capabilities, despite estimated $100 billion in damages

The Israeli military said Friday that it remains on high alert and ready to return to fighting in both Iran and Lebanon if the fragile ceasefires in both countries collapse or expire without an extension in the coming weeks, in a somewhat pessimistic assessment of the truces announced by US President Donald Trump.

Briefing reporters, several senior military officials said that the Israel Defense Forces believes it dealt a severe blow to Iran amid the 40-day war, though the Islamic Republic will likely return to rebuilding its capabilities that threaten Israel.

The officials said that the IDF hopes that negotiations between the United States and Iran will be successful, and handle the issue of Iran’s stockpile of over 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, which Israeli officials have said is enough for 11 nuclear bombs.

However, if the negotiations fall through, the IDF has already drawn up plans with its partners at US Central Command to return to striking Iran, with an emphasis on energy sites, which the officials said would be aimed at pressuring the regime into a deal.

In strikes on Iranian gas infrastructure, steel factories, and petrochemical facilities, along with attacks on military sites during the war, the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate estimated that it had caused Iran at least 100 billion dollars in damage.

One military official said that the IDF could double that damage, or more, should it be instructed by Israel’s political leadership to return to fighting.

The military’s thinking behind the financial damage to Iran was to cause officials in the Islamic Republic to face a dilemma of whether or not they should again invest money into the regime’s weapons production industry.

The IDF has said that the most significant blow during the war was to Iran’s arms production industry, with the military reporting that it struck all of the key sites used to develop weapons that threaten Israel.

Israel has said that these strikes have caused significant damage to Iran’s ballistic missile production industry, and as a result, it currently cannot manufacture any new missiles.

However, the officials said that they assess that Iran will quickly work to return some manufacturing capabilities.

Israel’s goals for the war were to degrade the Iranian regime’s military capabilities, distance threats posed by Iran — including its nuclear and ballistic missile programs — and “create the conditions” for the Iranian people to topple the regime.

Related: The war in numbers: 650 Iranian missiles fired; 24 killed in Israel, West Bank; 10,800 Israeli strikes

As part of the effort to create the conditions for the regime to collapse, the military said it struck over 450 targets relating to Iran’s oppressive Basij paramilitary force, taking out some 200 command centers, as well as killing around 1,000 members. The commander of the Basij and his deputy, along with top commanders, were among those killed.

The military assessed that the strikes on the command centers severely disrupted the Basij’s operations and could cause the paramilitary force to struggle against renewed internal protests, should they erupt.

However, regarding both missile production capabilities and Iran’s internal security forces, the actual effects of the operation and its achievements would be “measured over time,” the officials said.

Iran, meanwhile, was working to assess the damage it sustained during the war, stabilize its command and control — after many top military commanders were killed by Israel — and work to improve its readiness for resumed hostilities, the Intelligence Directorate assessed.

The Intelligence Directorate also assessed that Iran has a “fragmented” leadership, split between apparently indisposed new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, remaining top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, political-military officials like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and government officials such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Alongside the “functional damage” caused to the regime, the officials said that there are “strategic opportunities” to expand alliances in the Middle East and isolate Iran, leading to major regional changes.

The two-week ceasefire in Iran, announced by Trump, is due to end on April 22.

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, the Israeli military remained deployed several kilometers deep in the south of the country, along a ridge dubbed by the IDF the “anti-tank line,” from which Hezbollah could have launched anti-tank guided missiles directly at Israeli communities, amid a 10-day ceasefire there.

That ceasefire, also announced by Trump on Thursday night, comes amid historic direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. The IDF hopes to see the negotiations result in the disarmament of Hezbollah and the demilitarization of the area south of the Litani River by the Lebanese state.

However, should the negotiations fall through and the ceasefire not be extended, the officials said the IDF was ready to return to fighting and continue to push away the threat of Hezbollah from the border.

Meanwhile, amid the ceasefire, the IDF was expected to continue mop-up operations in areas of southern Lebanon that it controls, destroying Hezbollah infrastructure and locating weapons, as well as striking any “imminent” threat.

During the fighting in Lebanon, which began on March 2, Hezbollah fired some 5,500 rockets at IDF troops operating in the south of the country, as well as around 2,500 at Israel, according to the military. There were at least 75 rocket impact sites in Israel.

In addition, Hezbollah launched around 300 drones, of which 25 struck Israel, according to the IDF.

The military said Hezbollah also launched 140 anti-tank guided missiles at troops, of which 15 hit.

Also during that time, the IDF said it killed some 1,700 Hezbollah operatives, including hundreds of members of the terror group’s elite Radwan Force. Since October 7, 2023, the IDF estimates that over 6,000 Hezbollah operatives have been killed.

More than 5,000 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon were struck amid the latest round of fighting, including hundreds of command centers, weapon depots, and rocket and missile launchers, according to the IDF.

Thirteen IDF soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon amid fighting against Hezbollah, two civilians were killed by Hezbollah rockets, and an Israeli civilian was mistakenly killed in the north by Israeli artillery shelling.