Poll shows Eisenkot with significant lead over Netanyahu as preferred PM; Knesset blocs static

TV survey says former IDF chief’s Yashar party would get the most votes if election held now, though together with rest of the anti-Netanyahu bloc would lack a parliamentary majority without Arab party support

A new television poll aired Monday showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trailing his foremost challenger, former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, by a significant margin, with 43% of Israeli voters saying they prefer Eisenkot as prime minister versus 34% for the sitting premier.

Israel does not, however, hold a direct vote for prime minister, and the Channel 12 news survey ahead of the October 27 Knesset election showed the pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs in about the same position they have been in for months. The anti-Netanyahu bloc would win 59 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, short of a 61-seat majority, while the pro-Netanyahu bloc would win 51. Arab parties, which have largely not joined Israel’s coalition governments, would win the remaining 10 seats.

Still, Eisenkot’s lead over Netanyahu in the poll asking who is better suited to lead the country pointed to the prime minister’s declining popularity while also signaling that Eisenkot was cementing his position as the leader of the anti-Netanyahu camp, with several other recent surveys showing his party would receive the most votes if elections were held today.

Another candidate seeking to replace Netanyahu, former prime minister Naftali Bennett, garnered 35% in a head-to-head poll, behind the premier’s 37%.

Turning to parties, the poll found that Eisenkot’s Yashar would win the most seats, 23, followed by Netanyahu’s Likud at 22. Bennett’s center-right opposition party, Together, would win 16.

The left-wing Democrats and hawkish Yisrael Beytenu, both anti-Netanyahu, would each win 10 seats. The Haredi Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, as well as the far-right Otzma Yehudit, all pro-Netanyahu, would win eight each, according to the poll. Rounding out the pro-Netanyahu camp, the far-right Religious Zionism party would win five seats. The two Arab parties, Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am, would also each win five.

A few additional center-right factions would fall short of entering the Knesset, the poll showed.

The Channel 12 poll also asked how the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, influenced voters’ political stances, with 38% saying they moved to the right after the terror onslaught, while 49% reported no change in their political leanings. Seven percent said they moved to the left.

Additionally, the survey included a question on whether voters back Netanyahu’s deal with Haredi parties to pass laws defining Torah study as a “foundational value” and freezing arrests of draft evaders in exchange for their support of legislation that would significantly weaken the powers of the attorney general and give the government control over appointing a commission to investigate the failures surrounding the October 7, 2023, as well as a media overhaul bill.

Sixty-two percent of poll respondents said they opposed the deal, with 22% in favor and the remainder not knowing. Among coalition voters, 18% reported opposing the deal, a figure that skyrocketed to 95% among opposition voters.

The survey for the network was conducted by pollster Manu Geva’s Midgam firm and included 509 participants, with a 4.4% margin of error.