Oil prices plunge, stocks surge against backdrop of Iran ceasefire

Wall Street’s three main indexes jump more than two percent, but oil prices are still significantly higher than prewar rates, as threat remains of war resuming

Oil and gas prices plunged, stock markets soared and the dollar retreated on Wednesday after the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary ceasefire that could lead to the Strait of Hormuz reopening.

“A wave of relief has hit financial markets after threats of a devastating escalation of the war were replaced by a temporary truce,” said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at the Wealth Club.

The most widely traded oil contracts fell more than 15 percent to just above $90 a barrel, after more than a month of conflict that killed thousands and hammered the global economy.

Stock markets soared, with Wall Street’s three main indexes opening more than two percent higher.

Europe’s main bourses were up between two and five percent in mid-afternoon trading.

The Tokyo stock market closed up 5.4 percent and Chinese indices jumped around three percent.

The dollar, a safe haven in times of market turmoil, slid against the euro, yen and British pound as investors returned to riskier assets.

To be sure, stock prices are still below where they were before the war. And oil prices are still significantly higher because the threat remains that the war could continue and keep oil produced in the Persian Gulf area blocked in the Middle East. Prices for both stocks and oil pared their big moves as the morning progressed, and financial markets have been prone to sudden and extreme reversals since the war began.

Traders warned that the euphoria could be short-lived as both sides have threatened to resume hostilities if the two-week pause does not lead to an agreement.

“There is a reason to be optimistic, but it is still too early to tell, because, as you know, after all, it is Trump,” said Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at MONEX.

“In reality, the markets are not pricing in peace but a window for negotiation. And that is precisely the issue: in two weeks, either this window will lead to a lasting agreement, or it will only postpone and amplify the energy shock that everyone fears,” said John Plassard of Cite Gestion.

The next moves for oil prices will likely depend on how many oil tankers can start exiting the Strait of Hormuz and how easy their passage is. Iran said the deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial transit lane for oil, but the terms were not clear.

Maritime monitor Marine Traffic noted that two ships had passed through the waterway since Iran agreed to reopen it, through which much of the world’s oil, gas and fertilizer passes. But a major German shipping company said it was too early for its trapped ships to set sail out of the Gulf.

Shipping journal Lloyd’s List estimated that around 800 ships were hampered.

The International Air Transport Association, meanwhile, said that it would take months for jet fuel supplies and prices to normalize.

“Should talks falter or activity through the Strait remain subdued, oil prices and the dollar could reverse course fairly quickly,” said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury.

Most equity sectors saw sizable gains, with mining groups, banks and airlines among the biggest winners, with gains of more than 10 percent in some cases.

Energy majors slumped, however, having made huge gains over the past few weeks.

Shell was down more than six percent in London even as it said first-quarter earnings were set for a “significant” boost from higher oil prices. BP fell more than seven percent and Totalenergies five percent. Despite Wednesday’s hefty falls in oil and gas prices, fuel prices and energy company share prices remain far above their levels on the eve of the Mideast war at the end of February.

“I don’t think we’re going to [quickly] go back to the levels we were at before the war,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB traders.

“The reason why is that energy infrastructure across the Gulf has been targeted.”