Central bank warns Dutch investors over U.S. share value amid possible AI bubble

Dutch financial authorities are warning that record-high U.S. stock valuations and global economic uncertainty pose risks to financial stability, according to De Nederlandsche Bank’s (DNB) autumn 2025 financial stability report.

Last week, major U.S. stock indices suffered their largest monthly declines in months, despite gains of roughly 20 percent since early April. The surge has been driven by optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), stronger-than-expected economic performance, and earnings from leading technology firms.

“Historically, stocks are highly valued, and that carries risk,” DNB President Olaf Sleijpen said. “With such a risk profile, the key lesson is not to put all your eggs in one basket. Fortunately, Dutch pension funds have not done that.” Sleijpen declined to call the market an AI-driven bubble, saying, “I don’t want to use that word, because I simply don’t know.”

The report emphasizes that global geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty continue to elevate risks for the Netherlands, with trade and government finance concerns suppressing business and consumer confidence. Geopolitical tensions also amplify market volatility and digital threats. High stock valuations increase the risk of abrupt corrections, while rising long-term interest rates pressure government debt sustainability.

Despite these risks, Dutch financial institutions remain strong. Banks have solid buffers and liquidity, and credit losses remain low. Insurers and pension funds have strengthened positions, increasing interest rate hedges ahead of the pension system transition. By early next year, 30 to 40 percent of Dutch pension assets will move to the new system, altering investment strategies, including reduced hedging.

DNB also warned about growing links between banks and non-banking financial institutions, partly due to private credit growth, and noted that integration with the U.S. stablecoin market could bring financial stability risks. “Full and consistent implementation of agreed global standards for stablecoins is necessary,” the report said.

Market sentiment remains broadly positive. After April turbulence following U.S. import tariffs, European and American equities have recovered, trading roughly 5 percent and 20 percent higher than early April levels. Gains in U.S. stocks are largely driven by the so-called Magnificent Seven tech firms, AI optimism, and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bond markets have reflected similar optimism, although concerns about U.S. credit markets rose following several automotive sector bankruptcies.

DNB concluded that strong buffers, such as banks’ capital reserves, and proactive stress testing remain essential. ‘Preparation for shocks and sufficient buffers help limit the risks of heightened uncertainty for financial stability,’ the report said.