Centrist D66 wins Dutch election, knocking far-right PVV to second, exit poll shows

Centrist party D66 appeared to win the 2025 Dutch General Election, tripling their current total of representatives in Parliament, according to the first exit poll of the night from research firm Ipsos I&O. While the party may have knocked the far-right PVV down to the second-largest in the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of Parliament, the initial data suggested that the PVV's losses were to the benefit of other far-right nationalist factions. Ipsos I&O also emphasized that both D66 and PVV remained within the margin of error of 2 seats for large parties, and 1 for smaller parties, when the exit poll was released at 9 p.m., and when it was updated 30 minutes later.

There was shock and dismay at left-wing party GroenLinks-PvdA, which was projected to lose five parliamentarians of their 25 currently in office, despite projections they could become the largest party in the Tweede Kamer. Supporters hoped party leader Frans Timmermans could become the successor to Prime Minister Dick Schoof.

Instead, D66 leader Rob Jetten looked poised to become the next prime minister and lead negotiations to form a new ruling coalition. Cheers burst out at the D66 campaign celebration in Leiden, with the exit poll suggesting their party showed the sharpest gains in the election. The party appeared due to send 18 more politicians to the Tweede Kamer, bringing their total up to 27.

Even if the PVV winds up as the largest in the Tweede Kamer, many parties refused to work with PVV leader Geert Wilders due to his behavior and remarks during the coalition formation process in 2023, and the abrupt manner in which he pulled the plug even before Schoof's Cabinet was in office less than a year. Schoof led a four-party coalition with the PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB, but the PVV exited just before the summer, and the NSC stunned colleagues by jumping ship weeks later.

It appeared as if the PVV's influence was set to fall by a third, from 37 MPs down to 25, with a total of 150 seats in the Tweede Kamer. It was not immediately clear why voters rebelled from the far-right party, though strong increase were announced for far-right party Ja21. They likely jumped up by 8 seats to 9 in total. Extreme-right FvD also looked to take 6 spots in total, up from 3 in the previous election.

There was also excitement at the CDA party in The Hague. The Christian center-right party appeared to win back the support they needed after voters abandoned the party in recent years. The exit poll showed an increase of 14 members of parliament, to bring their total up to 19.

The VVD also performed above expectations, with projections suggesting they could hold 23 of their 24 seats. This despite months of division within the party, disappointment in party leader Dilan Yeşilgöz, and a suggestion they could see their total number of MPs drop by a third.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the immensely unpopular NSC looked likely to be fully out of the Tweede Kamer. The party took 20 seats in the 2023 election, its debut, with party found Pieter Omtzigt riding a wave of support from voters aggravated by the state of politics in The Hague. He was able to pull many votes away from his former party, the CDA, but was often characterized as overly emotional during tense coalition formation negotiations. Still, he managed to

The day before the election, polling showed the PVV could potentially be knocked down from the top spot, with the potential that either GroenLinks-PvdA or D66 to win a plurality of votes. The VVD was expected to remain in the top five, and the CDA was likely to return to power with the highest number of parliamentarians since winning 19 seats in the 2017 Tweede Kamer election.

The sense that the Netherlands was at an important historical point may have been on the minds of many voters, with a high percentage of the population saying they felt the country was headed down the wrong path. Further analysis will determine why voters changed parties since the 2023 election, and which parties lured them away.

Roughly 39 percent of voters were still undecided just a couple of days before the election, according to a survey released Tuesday by Ipsos I&O. Hundreds of thousands of people still consulted online voting assistance guides on the day of the election itself.

More than 500,000 people filled out the StemWijzer questionnaire from the start of Wednesday through 1 p.m., a spokesperson told ANP. Around a quarter of a million people also used the guide, Kieskompas, during the morning hours, with the figure likely to rise even higher.