Will Jetten I collapse today? Parliament to vote on tax plan as coalition trembles
A stressful day lies ahead for national politics in The Hague today. The Tweede Kamer, the lower house of the Dutch parliament, will continue its debate and vote on the government’s tax plan for 2027. After months of fruitless negotiations between the Cabinet and opposition, the coalition is trembling. The question is no longer only whether the tax plan will pass, but whether the Jetten I Cabinet will survive at all.
On Wednesday, the D66 and CDA announced that they have struck a deal with PRO and Volt to amend the tax plan, securing these two parties’ support. The two left-wing parties proposed moving €1.5 billion in tax hikes from taxes on labor to taxes on wealth. A deal with PRO and Volt is enough to secure the minority coalition a majority in both the Tweede Kamer and the Eerste Kamer, the Dutch Senate.
Coalition partner VVD has been vehemently against increasing taxes on wealth and working with PRO at all. So even though this deal with PRO and Volt affects only a tiny portion of the over €500 billion tax plan, it is a bridge too far for the VVD. The liberal party strongly prefers teaming up with the right-wing parties JA21, SGP, and BBB, although the route they offered was never politically feasible, given their non-negotiable ideological demands on asylum, nitrogen, and abortion.
Following a crisis meeting with her party, VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz said on Wednesday evening that she was completely surprised by her coalition partners making this deal. “We shall see whether our coalition partners vote in favor of the deal,” she said. “If that actually happens, we will have to determine how - or if - our cooperation can continue.”
Whether Yeşilgöz will actually pull the trigger remains to be seen. The party responsible for the collapse of a Cabinet typically pays for that with fewer votes in the subsequent elections. The VVD is already performing dismally in the polls; Yeşilgöz will be keen to avoid the blame.
The D66 and CDA are also not doing great in the polls. So it will be in all three coalition parties’ best interests to keep it together and avoid another election.
Earlier this week, parliament passed a motion in which MPs argued for a “reboot” of the government, should the Cabinet fall, without the need for another parliamentary election, NU.nl reported. Yeşilgöz also hinted at this possibility on Wednesday. “If the CDA and D66 would rather form a coalition with PvdA and Volt, they should go ahead and do so,” she remarked.
The parliamentary debate on the tax plan starts at 10:15 a.m. After the debate, the parties will vote on the amendments to the tax plan, and then the tax plan as a whole.