D66 projected to win the election, and may get 27th seat; Wilders can't move past Jetten

The D66 has won the election. Rob Jetten’s party can no longer be overtaken by the PVV with the uncounted votes remaining, according to an analysis by the ANP Election Service of the municipal results. There is also a chance that D66 will pick up one more seat by the time the ballots have been tallied.

Each currently are projected to send 26 politicians to fill the 150 available seats in the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of Dutch parliament. This is because of the proportionate distribution of seats determined by the total number of ballots submitted.

Based on the votes counted thus far, D66 has a lead of 15,155 votes. According to ANP, the PVV cannot make up the difference with the ballots that have yet to be counted.

Domestically, only the results from Venray, Limburg, have yet to be counted. The municipality is 30 minutes away from PVV leader Geert Wilders' hometown in Venlo, and largely turned out for his party in the 2023 election. The PVV became the largest party after that election, taking 37 seats in Parliament, while D66 was able to send nine politicians to the Tweede Kamer. They were 160 votes shy of taking 10 seats.

The results have not been announced in Venray as an electrical fire at the Town Hall building caused a delay. A partial recount was also ordered for ballots from one of the larger polling places in Venray, meaning results are unlikely to be announced there until late Friday afternoon.

The PVV won 27.9 percent of the vote in Venray in 2023, according to the city's statements that year. D66 won roughly 5.6 percent. This year, about 24,000 ballots were cast in Venray, the mayor estimated, and the PVV has lost ground in most municipalities across the country.

Aside from that, tens of thousands of ballots from eligible voters abroad had yet to be counted. Those ballots which were mailed in needed to arrive by Election Day, but ballots submitted at Dutch embassies and consulates need to arrive in the Netherlands by Tuesday afternoon. All of these ballots are counted by the municipality of The Hague.

"We've gone through various scenarios. Even if Venray voted overwhelmingly for the PVV, more than ever before, D66 and the PVV would still be tied. Our analysis of postal voters in the last election is that the PVV can't win, even with that," said Mark Westerhoff, head of the ANP Election Service.