Petrol and diesel prices fall slightly; Will be cheaper if U.S., Iran ceasefire holds

Petrol and diesel prices in the Netherlands are expected to fall slightly in the coming days. Global oil and gas prices dropped by roughly 20 percent after the two-week ceasefire agreement, though further decreases depend on whether the truce holds.

“We hope and expect that there will already be a price drop at the pump tomorrow,” Derk Foolen from UnitedConsumers told NU.nl. “The decrease will not immediately be 5 or 10 cents, but a few cents.”

On Wednesday, the price of Euro95 petrol rose slightly to 2.599 euros per liter, compared with 2.284 euros per liter before the Iran conflict began.

Experts stress that any decline will be limited in the short term. “We should not focus blindly on the oil price,” Foolen added. “Fuel prices are also driven by supply and demand. Demand is still high, while oil supply remains limited due to the war.”

Erik de Vries from the fuel traders’ association NOVE said wholesale prices for petrol and diesel have already dropped, indicating that retail prices may follow soon. “If we are seeing these trends here, we can expect reductions at the pump in the short term. By cents,” he said, adding that the reduction could happen as early as Thursday.

However, price cuts at gas stations typically lag behind market drops. “Gas stations purchased their stock at high prices and will want to sell it without losses,” De Vries said. “But they face competition. They cannot wait too long to lower prices, because there are about 4,200 gas stations in the Netherlands. There is always one that lowers prices faster.”

Additional pressure could come from currency movements. The euro has strengthened against the dollar, meaning buyers “get more oil for their euros,” De Vries said.

The extent of future price declines remains uncertain and hinges on geopolitical developments. The ceasefire includes a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and gas flows, which could further ease prices if stability continues.

“The most important thing is that energy infrastructure in the Middle East is restored,” De Vries said. Storage, ports, and production capacity. As soon as there is positive news on that, prices could fall even further.”