Dangote Refinery to Take Major Decision on Fuel Prices Amid US-Iran Deal, New Crude Costs

• Nigeria is anticipating lower petrol prices as global crude oil rates decline amid US-Iran agreement talks
• Dangote Refinery may adjust fuel prices if international trends continue, impacting the local downstream market
• Marketers delay purchases, expecting significant price reductions for consumers struggling with high transport and living costs

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Pascal Oparada is a journalist with Legit.ng, covering technology, energy, stocks, investment, and the economy for over a decade.

Fresh hopes of lower petrol and diesel prices are rising across Nigeria as expectations of a possible United States-Iran agreement continue to push global crude oil prices downward.

Industry sources have revealed that Dangote Petroleum Refinery may soon review its ex-gantry fuel prices if the decline in international oil prices continues in the coming days.

The development has already triggered anxiety and anticipation in the downstream market, with many marketers reportedly delaying fresh fuel purchases in expectation of a major price reduction.

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Crude oil prices drop on US-Iran breakthrough

Global oil prices weakened significantly after reports emerged that Washington and Tehran had reached a breakthrough agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes.

Following the reports, Brent crude fell below $84 per barrel, reversing part of the sharp gains recorded in previous weeks.

The easing tensions in the Middle East have raised expectations that global energy prices could decline further, potentially bringing relief to fuel consumers in Nigeria who have battled rising transportation and living costs for months.

Dangote Refinery monitoring global oil trends

Sources familiar with operations at Dangote Refinery disclosed that any major decision on fuel pricing would largely depend on the direction of global crude oil prices, according to a report by Punch.

A senior source within the refinery told Petroleumprice.ng that a reduction in gantry prices is becoming increasingly likely if crude prices continue to soften.

According to the source, the refinery is, however, still managing large volumes of crude purchased at significantly higher prices before the recent market decline.

“Yes, ₦900 per litre petrol is possible if oil prices settle down, but we still have expensive crude stock in our tanks,” the source reportedly said.

Another insider noted that the proposed US-Iran deal could become a major turning point for Nigeria’s fuel market.

“If oil prices continue to fall and the US-Iran deal is signed, most likely there’s going to be a deduction in price,” the source added.

Marketers slow purchases ahead of possible price crash

The expectation of lower fuel prices has already started affecting market behaviour.

Multiple marketers are reportedly adopting a wait-and-see approach, slowing down bulk purchases in anticipation of cheaper PMS and AGO prices.

Market checks indicate that many independent fuel marketers now expect suppliers to adjust prices downward if the international crude market maintains its current trend.

The situation is also intensifying competition among private depots, especially in Lagos, where some operators have already started selling products below prevailing ex-gantry rates in a bid to attract buyers.

Nigerians hope for relief at the pumps

Industry analysts say the coming days could prove decisive for the Nigerian fuel market.

Should the US-Iran agreement become official and crude oil prices continue their downward movement, Nigeria may witness one of the biggest fuel price reductions seen in recent months.

For millions of Nigerians struggling with high transport fares, food inflation and rising energy bills, the possibility of cheaper petrol and diesel is generating cautious optimism.

However, experts warn that the pace of any reduction will depend heavily on how quickly refiners exhaust existing high-cost crude inventories and adjust pricing structures to reflect the new realities in the global oil market.

"Right now, marketers are trying to dispose the feedstocks they purchased at high prices when oil sold above $90 per barrel. So, any major price reduction is feasible but not immediate," Osas Igho, a financial analyst, told Legit.ng in a telephone interview.

Until then, consumers and marketers alike remain on edge, watching global developments that could soon determine the next direction of fuel prices in Nigeria.

Dangote Refinery cuts aviation fuel price by ₦100

Legit.ng previously reported that Nigeria’s aviation sector has received a major boost following a fresh reduction in aviation fuel prices by Dangote Petroleum Refinery, a move expected to ease pressure on airlines and potentially reduce operational costs across the industry.

The refinery on Saturday, June 6, 2026, cut its ex-depot price for Jet A1 aviation fuel by ₦100 per litre, bringing the loading price down from ₦1,650 to ₦1,550 per litre.

Industry platform Petroleumprice.ng confirmed the development through sources familiar with operations at the refinery, noting that the new price has already taken immediate effect for marketers, distributors and bulk buyers.