CardinalStone Predicts N1,350 Per Dollar For Naira in 2026 Amid CBN FX Reforms

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• Nigeria's naira could appreciate to N1,350-N1,450 per dollar by 2026, driven by FX reforms
• Weaker global oil prices pose risks, yet Nigeria's FX outlook may remain resilient amid structural changes
• Declining inflation and lower fuel costs are forecast, offering relief to households and stabilising consumer prices

Nigeria’s naira could post a notable recovery in 2026, appreciating to between N1,350 and N1,450 per dollar, as foreign exchange reforms, improving liquidity and easing inflation begin to reshape the country’s macroeconomic outlook, according to CardinalStone Partners.

The projection is contained in the firm’s 2026 economic outlook report, titled “Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains”, released on January 6, 2026. While the report strikes a cautiously optimistic tone, it also flags risks from weaker global oil prices and rising domestic insecurity.

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FX reforms begin to support the naira

After years of steep depreciation driven by FX liberalisation, repeated devaluations and persistent dollar shortages, CardinalStone says conditions are gradually improving.

The firm believes recent reforms in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market are starting to deliver tangible benefits.

“We expect the naira to appreciate to a range of N1,350.00/$ – N1,450.00/$ in 2026, supported by improving fundamentals,” the report stated.

According to CardinalStone, better price discovery, increased transparency and stronger FX liquidity are helping to restore confidence in the market.

With inflation expected to moderate, pressure on the naira could ease further, allowing the currency to stabilise after prolonged volatility.

Oil price weakness is still a key risk

The upbeat currency outlook comes against a less favourable global oil backdrop.

CardinalStone expects crude oil prices to weaken in 2026 due to oversupply and softer global demand, a scenario that typically weighs on Nigeria’s FX earnings and fiscal position.

“Due to oversupply and weaker demand, crude oil prices are likely to be lower,” the report noted, projecting an average oil price of $55.08 per barrel in 2026.

However, the firm argues that Nigeria’s FX outlook may prove more resilient this time. Structural changes in FX management, improved capital flows and reduced market distortions are expected to help cushion the impact of lower crude prices.

Fuel prices and energy market competition

CardinalStone also expects relief on the domestic energy front. Weaker global oil prices combined with a firmer naira could drive down fuel costs in 2026.

“The weak oil price, coupled with an improving FX outlook, should further drive down the domestic prices of AGO and PMS,” the report said.

Lower fuel prices would be a sharp reversal after repeated increases following subsidy removal and currency weakness.

Such a shift could ease transport and logistics costs, offering relief to households and businesses, particularly in manufacturing and trade.

BusinessDay reports that the firm added that rising competition in the downstream petroleum sector, supported by local refineries and continued imports, should help stabilise prices and improve efficiency.

Inflation outlook: Cautious optimism

On inflation, CardinalStone expects a gradual moderation in 2026 as currency pressures ease and energy costs decline.

Headline inflation is forecast to average 15.5% and close the year at 13.9%, a significant improvement from recent highs.

Still, risks remain. The report highlighted worsening insecurity in food-producing regions as a major threat to price stability, alongside the inflationary impact of pre-election year spending.

A pivotal year for macroeconomic stability

Overall, CardinalStone believes a stronger naira would help curb imported inflation, stabilise consumer prices and improve planning for businesses reliant on foreign inputs. Yet, the outlook remains finely balanced.

Sustaining currency stability and disinflation, the firm stressed, will depend on continued reform momentum, improved security conditions and disciplined fiscal management, making 2026 a critical test year for Nigeria’s economic reset.

Naira posts best run in a decade

Legit.ng previously reported that the naira delivered its strongest annual performance in more than 10 years in 2025, appreciating by over 7 per cent against the United States dollar as sweeping foreign exchange reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria began to reshape market confidence.

Recent data from the apex bank showed that the local currency strengthened by 7.4%, or N105.61, to close at N1,435.75 per dollar on the final trading day of 2025, compared with N1,541.36 at the start of the year.

The gain marked a sharp turnaround from years of sustained pressure and volatility in the foreign exchange market.