OPEC+ planning theoretical oil output hike amid Iran war paralysis, sources say

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MOSCOW/LONDON – OPEC+, a group comprising the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, has agreed in principle to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, three sources with knowledge of the group’s talks said ahead of its meeting later on April 5.

But this rise will largely exist on paper as its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most important oil route – since the end of February and cut exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq, the only countries in the group which were able to significantly raise production even before the conflict began.

Russia, also a group member, is unable to increase output due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure inflicted during the war with Ukraine.

Inside the Gulf, damage to infrastructure from missile and drone attacks has also been severe.

Several Gulf officials have said it would take months to resume normal operations and reach production targets even if the war stopped and Hormuz reopened immediately.

Iran on April 4 said Iraq was exempted from any restrictions to transiting the vital route, and shipping data on April 5 showed a tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passing through the strait.

Still, it remains to be seen if more vessels will take the risk involved, a source close to the issue said.

At its last meeting on March 1, just as the war began to disrupt oil flows, OPEC+ agreed to a modest output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April.

A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as many as 12 million to 15 million barrels per day, or up to 15 per cent of global supply.

Crude prices have soared to a four-year high close to US$120 a barrel. Oil prices could spike above US$150 – an all-time high – if flows via Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May, JPMorgan said on April 2.

The meeting on April 5 will discuss OPEC+ quotas for May, sources said.

An increase will have little immediate impact on supply but would signal readiness to raise output once Hormuz reopens, OPEC+ sources have said.

Consultancy Energy Aspects called the increase “academic” as long as disruptions in the strait persist.

OPEC+ consists of 22 members including Iran.

In recent years, only the eight countries meeting on April 5 have been involved in monthly production decisions, and they started in 2025 to unwind previously agreed output cuts to regain market share.

The eight raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December 2025, before pausing increases for January to March 2026. REUTERS