World will overshoot 1.5 deg C climate goal in next decade, UN warns

SAO PAULO – The world has failed to meet its main climate change target of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 deg C, and will likely breach this threshold in the next decade, the United Nations’ Environment Programme (UNEP) said on Nov 4.

The annual Emissions Gap report said because of countries’ slow action to reduce planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions, it is now clear that the world will exceed the core target of the 2015 Paris Agreement – at least temporarily.

“This will be difficult to reverse, requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimise overshoot,” the UNEP said.

Lead report author Anne Olhoff said deep emissions cuts now could delay when the overshoot happens, “but we can no longer totally avoid it”.

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to limit the global average temperature rise
to 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels and to aim for 1.5 deg C.

Yet, governments’ latest pledges to cut emissions in the future, if met, would see the world face 2.3 to 2.5 deg C of warming, the UNEP said.

That is around 0.3 deg C less warming than the UN’s projection a year ago, indicating that new emissions-cutting plans announced in 2025 by countries, including top emitter China, have failed to substantially close the gap.

China pledged in September to cut emissions
by 7 to 10 per cent from their peak by 2035. Analysts note the country tends to set modest targets and exceed them.

The findings add pressure to the UN’s COP30 climate summit in November, where countries will debate how to kick-start and finance faster action to rein in global warming.

The Paris Agreement temperature goals were based on scientific assessments of how each increment of global warming fuels worse heatwaves, droughts and wildfires.

For example, 2 deg C of warming would more than double the share of the population exposed to extreme heat, compared with 1.5 deg C. Warming of 1.5 deg C would destroy at least 70 per cent of coral reefs, versus 99 per cent at 2 deg C.

Current policies – the ones countries already have in place – would lead to even more warming, of around 2.8 deg C, the UNEP said.

The world has made some progress.

A decade ago, when the Paris Agreement was signed, the planet was on course for around a 4 deg C temperature rise.

But heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise, as countries burn coal, oil and gas to power their economies.

Global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.3 per cent in 2024 to 57.7 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent, the UNEP said. REUTERS